by Jim Feist

Rookies are not to be trusted. Rookie QB’s are exciting but they give away as much as they deliver. Just check the stats on budding young stars Cam Newton, Christian Ponder and Andy Dalton this week tells the story. They had 4, 3, 3 picks respectively. Only Jacksonville rookie QB Blaine Gabbert, also a rookie, avoided a pick and he runs the worst offense in the NFL!

For many years football experts have argued that rookie QB’s should sit a year or so to learn the position. Perhaps they are correct. After all, former Cincy QB Carson Palmer sat for a full year behind Jon Kitna before starting, and developing into a Pro Bowl signal caller. And, of course, Steve Young sat for a while behind Joe Montana.

All three young QBs this season that I just mentioned, the interception prone ones) lost  straight up and two of the three failed to cover on Sunday, with only Dalton and Bengals pushing the spread. Even Gabbert, who did not throw a pick, failed to win or cover.  The moral of the story: Be careful where you put your money!

Meanwhile in Detroit, the Lions found their running game, with Kevin smith (16 carries for 140 yards) giving some balance to the attack. However young QB Matt Stafford, like the rookies mentioned above, has been throwing as many times to the
opposition as to his own team.  Stafford did have a productive day in spite of throwing 2 picks. He led his team to victory as his teams benefited off Cam Newton’s pick giving Stafford good field position and he responded with 5 TDs for a nice come from behind win.

The amazing turnaround by the Bills and Dolphins: These are teams going in opposite directions and doing it in a profound way. Once QB Ryan Fitzpatrick signed the big contract both his and the team’s performance fell off the cliff. I don’t think one thing had anything to do with the other but was merely coincidental. What really happened was the Bills early hot run in spite of their average talent was aberrational.

Should Tony Sparano be Coach of the Year for the way he has turned the Dolphins around? Not only was he dissed by his owner when he was trying to replace Sparano with Jim Harbaugh, but Tony has been on the hot seat since last year. Only time will tell if he is out as coach after the season, but this team continues to play hard for him, despite being forced to start a backup QB (Matt Moore).

by Jim Feist

Last week the Baltimore Ravens had just 267 total yards in a Sunday night showdown with the Jets and were a measily 6 of 18 on third down. In addition, they averaged 2.8 yards per rush. What a terrible offensive performance! Oh, and by the way the Ravens won the game, 34-17.

Say what? The difference was turnovers, with the Jets coughing it up 4 times (3 fumbles, 1 pick). “The best defensive effort I thought I had ever seen or the most amazing defensive performance I thought I’d ever seen was the Pittsburgh game with seven turnovers,” Baltimore coach John Harbaugh said, referring to Baltimore’s season-opening 35-7 rout. “But this topped it. Turnovers are one of the most basic fundamentals of winning football, both straight up and against the number when analyzing football picks.

Defensive coaches have been preaching more aggressive, attacking stop units over the last 15 years. Coach Steve Spurrier has spent three decades coaching college and pro football, at Duke, Florida, South Carolina and the Washington Redskins. When asked about what the biggest change he had noticed in the college game, Spurrier spoke not about the wide-open passing attack that he helped popularize, but about defenses. He said that when he first took over at Duke in the 1980s, defenses were basic and reacted to what the offense would try and do.

However, since that time, defenses have become far more aggressive, trying to attack the offense rather than sit back and react. The Chicago Bears famed 46 defense caused havoc around the league during a 1985 Super Bowl season. The Bears that year were 18-1 straight up and 15-3-1 against the spread, led by a devastating, attacking defense. They pitched four shutouts and held 14 of 19 opponents to 10 points or less.

Defensive coaches in both the pro and college ranks have been teaching players to not only tackle properly, but to aggressively strip the ball from opposing players. Tony Dungy, Bill Belichick, Rex Ryan and Lovie Smith have used their teaching talents to upgrade defenses. A key component of aggressive defenses is to force more turnovers. They are a huge part of any contest. During the 2008 season, the Miami Dolphins came out of nowhere to win the AFC East in a stunning one-year turnaround. It’s no coincidence that Dolphins led the NFL (+17 in turnover margin) that season, then were minus-8 in TOs the next year going 7-9. The Patriots went 14-2 SU, 10-5-1 ATS last season, setting a record for positive turnover margin. Take a close look at the bottom teams in turnover margin from last season: (Follow Jim on Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/JimFeistSports)

2010 Worst TO Margin ATS record
Bills (-17) 8-7-1 ATS
Jaguars (-14) 9-7 ATS
Dolphins (-14) 8-8 ATS
Vikings (-13) 5-11 ATS
Broncos (-13) 6-10 ATS
Bengals (-8) 7-9 ATS
Panthers (-8) 4-12 ATS
Seahawks (-7) 7-9 ATS

None of those teams enjoyed good season, with the Vikings and Broncos huge busts, and Carolina atrocious offensively. Minnesota was the biggest surprise, going from the NFC Championship game in January of 2010 to bottoming out last season in a sea of turnovers behind QB Brett Favre. Now you know an even deeper reason those teams were in such a precarious situation — turnovers.
Only one of the teams on the high turnover list made the postseason (Seattle). Those teams were also a combined 51-70-1 against the spread, a factor to keep in mind when assessing weekly football picks. A quarterback who throws too many picks can kill the momentum of his offense, and his confidence can get worn down. It can even spill over onto the sidelines.

A few years ago in a playoff game, QB Marc Bulger threw 3 interceptions against the Panthers and while the Rams had a chance to win the game late in the fourth quarter, coach Mike Martz decided to play it safe and settled for a game-tying field goal. He was widely criticized for this after the Rams lost in overtime and it’s clear in the back of his mind he was thinking, “I don’t want Bulger to throw another interception. I’d better play it safe.”

That same 2008 season, the top five teams with the best turnover differential — Miami, Tennessee, Baltimore, the Giants and Indianapolis — all made the playoffs with at least 11 wins and combined for a 59-21 record. The Dolphins and Giants each had 13 turnovers, tied for the fewest ever in a 16-game season. (Follow Jim on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000714842217)

2010 Top TO Margin ATS record
Patriots (+30) 10-5-1 ATS
Packers (+20) 9-7 ATS
Steelers (+17) 10-6 ATS
Falcons (+14) 5-11 ATS
Bucs (+13) 9-5-2 ATS
Eagles (+13) 8-8 ATS
NY Jets (+12) 9-7 ATS

It’s not hard to notice how essential turnovers are. All the top teams in turnover margin made the playoffs in 2010, except the Bucs, and they came real close. Two were the top seeds in their conference (Pats, Falcons). They were a combined 60-49-1 ATS. The Falcons had a 13-3 regular season, but notice this year they are minus in turnovers, a key factor in their disappointing start.
Be careful backing teams that are sloppy at taking care of the football when analyzing football picks. Chances are they don’t win or cover the number as regularly as those that play smart, mistake-free ball. (more articles at http://www.jimfeist.tv/)

by Jim Feist

The best time of the sports calendar is here, the opening week of the pro football campaign! There are mountains of stats and angles available for sports bettors to digest from this season and years past. Information certainly is a huge key when analyzing games and point spreads. Sometimes it can seem that there is too much info, but it’s essential to understand that stats are only a starting point. They don’t always tell the whole story. In fact, stats can sometimes lie, something to keep in mind when searching for football picks.

Sure, it’s important to ask such questions as, “How many yards passing per game does his team get? How big is this offensive line compared to the opponent? Is a great quarterback going up against a team with slow defensive backs? What’s their home record the last five years, straight up and against the spread?” However, it’s important to learn when to look beyond stats. For example, here are some stats from the 2010 NFL season:

*The Texans were third in passing offense.
*The Steelers were 14th in passing offense
*Chargers were No. 1 in total defense.
*The 49ers were 6th in rushing defense.
*The Patriots ranked No. 8 in points allowed.
*The Raiders were 11th in total defense.
*The Raiders were No. 10 in total offense.
*The Bills ranked third in pass defense.

Now, all of those 2010 stats are true. However, they don’t tell the real story about a football team’s strengths, either. For instance, the Texans had a great passing offense behind QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson but there is another key piece to the puzzle for them: The defense was terrible, the third most yards allowed, plus dead last in pass defense. They had to throw often as they trailed a lot with an awful defense. That’s a combination totals bettors would want to know, and note that Houston is 19-7 over the total in their last 26 games in September.
While the Texans were so good in passing the football, the Steelers ranked in the middle of the pack at 14th. However, don’t think for a minute that the Steelers can’t throw the football or were mediocre. Pittsburgh didn’t throw as much as Houston because they were determined to have an effective ground game with Rashard Mendenhall, plus the defense was dominant (second in yards, tops in points allowed) so they didn’t have to throw the football playing catch-up that often. Of course, is they had to throw it, they could do it very well, as we saw in the playoff comeback against Baltimore with 24 second half points and 227 passing yards.

San Diego was No. 1 in total defense last season. When you realize they were also No. 1 in total offense, they shaped up on paper as the dominant team of 2010. However, they didn’t even make the playoffs. What happened? The defense was forced to play the short side of the field often because of turnovers and their special teams was so awful. They were a strong defensive team, but the stats are a big misleading.

How about the 49ers ranking sixth in rushing defense! Very impressive. In reality, nothing was impressive about the 49ers last season. They were “good” statistically against the run because they were so bad against the pass, giving up 231 yards in the air per game (9th worst). The reverse was true with the Bills, great against the pass because they couldn’t stop the run, dead last allowing 169.6 yards per game.

The Patriots ranked 8th in points allowed, but gave up a ton of yards. So where they a strong defensive team or not? Not. Their third down defense was atrocious, worst in the league, which was a big reason we saw so many changes in the secondary the last few weeks, releasing James Sanders and Brandon Merriweather. No. 8 in points allowed suggests a Top 10 defense, but they were not, a weakness that was exploited in the playoffs by the Jets, giving up 120 yards rushing, 314 yards overall and a poor 6 of 13 on third down.

The Raiders may have been 10th in total defense, but they played a lot of bad offensive teams. When they stepped up to play the Steelers, it wasn’t even close, a 35-3 loss. The 2008 champion Steelers ranked 22nd in total offense, a ball control offense with a sensational defense. But the offense was no liability, with a talented passing game of QB Ben Roethlisberger, TE Heath Miller and WRs Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes. We saw how good that passing offense could be when they needed a quick score – in the final seconds of the Super Bowl.

Back in 2004 and 2005 the Steelers ranked 28th and 24th in passing offense, yet those “poor” stats were deceptive. The Steelers are primarily a power-running team, and highly successful at it, getting out in front early and then chewing up the clock. It worked often during a 15-1 regular season in 2004 and winning the Super Bowl in 2005. They didn’t need to pass a lot, although when forced to pass, they were able to move the ball through the air with Roethlisberger and terrific wide receivers. The stats may suggest a poor passing team, but the reality was quite different.

Four years ago Cleveland was No. 13 against the pass, but anyone watching the Browns saw a very poor defense. They were 25th against the run, so teams could wear them down on the ground, making the passing game just as effective. The Browns allowed 238 points, one of the poorest marks in the league. Successful handicappers dig deep and weigh all the strengths and weaknesses before heading to the betting window. All of which is needed when searching for football picks.

by Jim Feist

The pro football season kicks off this week when the Saints travel to the defending champion Packers, a battle of the last two champs. Despite the fact that the NFC has won two in a row, the AFC has won 9 of the last 14 Super Bowls. Here is a look at some of the best of the NFL.

NY Jets: The Jets do a lot of talking, but when are they going to get to their first Super Bowl since 1969? The bombast of sexy Rexy Ryan and the influx of talent (and characters) have made this another fascinating team to watch. On the plus side, they had the No. 3 defense in the NFL, the No. 4 ground attack and add WR Plaxico Burress.
On the cautious side, QB Mark Sanchez left school early and is only in his third year. He had a poor rookie campaign with 12 TDs and 20 interceptions and improved to 17 TDs, 13 picks last season in a run-first offense.
There are 10 returning starters on defense, nine of whom have two years experience in Ryan’s system. Outside linebacker Calvin Pace will be in the opening day lineup. Pace, their best pass rusher, missed the first month of the 2009 and 2010 seasons because of a league suspension and a broken foot. “Will we end up being the best defense in football? I think so,” the Jets’ coach said last week. Despite what you might think, the Jets were 12-4 over the total last regular season.

Cowboys: A bounce back year after a train wreck in 2010? Who wouldn’t want all the talent on this team? 31-year old QB Tony Romo was lost with an injury which wrecked their season, but in 2009 he cut down his turnovers with 4,483 yards, 26 TDs and 9 picks. New Coach Jason Garrett has replaced laid back Wade Phillips and brought a tougher edge to training camp. He didn’t hesitate to cut flaky WR Roy Williams, sending a message to many players.
The ground game is deep with Felix Jones and WR Dez Bryant is in his second season. Anthony Spencer and Demarcus Ware (15.5 sacks) lead a dynamite defense that gets after quarterbacks. So when are they going to win a big playoff game? That’s the question Jerry Jones must be wondering, adding some pressure on the new coach. The Cowboys bring a 12-1 run over the total into the new season.

Saints: Remember us? We were champs two years ago! The rules changes the NFL made over the last seven years was designed to help offenses, so it’s no surprise that the Saints have benefitted with a great QB, fast wide outs and a wide-open spread offense. The Saints are again loaded on offense, led by QB Drew Brees (33 TDs, 22 INTs) and a revamped backfield that adds Darren Sproles and rookie first round pick RB Mark Ingram. The defense is attacking and aggressive under fiery Greg Robinson and 2-1 SU/ATS their last three times as a dog.

Steelers: Teams that lose the Super Bowl have a recent history of not even making the playoffs the next season, but that’s a trend Pittsburgh is likely to defy. The Steelers have exceptional balance on offense, 14th in passing yards last season, 11th in rushing behind QB Ben Roethlisberger (17 TDs, 5 INTs), RB Rashard Mendenhall (1,273 yards), WRs Mike Wallace and Hines Ward, plus TE Heath Miller.
The defense was No. 2 in the NFL in yards and tops in points, surrendering just 14.5 ppg. Their linebacker depth is outstanding as they get after the QB with their zone blitz schemes. They are on an 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS run on the road and there is plenty of talent for this team to return to the postseason.

Patriots: Bill Belichick loaded up with defense this offseason, bring in veterans to help the D-line in Albert Haynesworth, Andre Carter and Mark Anderson. That’s a plus as this defense was leaky, with no pass rush and a suspect young secondary that was the worst in the NFL on third down. The offense gives the coach nothing to worry about behind QB Tom Brady (3,900 yards, 36 TDs, 4 picks) and adds WR Chad Ochocinco and first round pick OT Nate Solder (Colorado). Re-signing Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins was a huge move, as well, but their success comes down to the new-look defense.

Packers: Green Bay may have snuck into the playoffs last season, but it was no fluke they won the Super Bowl. They were a preseason favorite to be one of the top teams and struggled in midseason only because of a rash of injuries. Despite those setbacks and without much of a running game, the Packer depth was outstanding, finishing 9th in yards offensively and 5th in total defense.
QB Aaron Rodgers (28 TDs, 11 INTs, 3,922 yards) leads this high-octane passing attack while talented defensive coordinator Dom Capers mixes game plans up and loves to bring the heat on opposing quarterbacks. They are the NFC favorites in Las Vegas, but will carry the bulls-eye burden of defending champs.

by Big Al McMordie

Week 3 of the preseason is on deck and that’s the time many coaches use their starters the most, playing three quarters as if it’s a real game. However, not all coaches do this. It’s essential to keep tabs on all the shifts and changes, as preseason football is loaded with injuries, QB rotations, depth charts and coaching decisions that will influence play.

It’s a time for coaching staffs to put in changes, some obvious, some subtle, but it’s also a time for handicappers to pay close attention. A few years ago the Jacksonville Jaguars brought in a new offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter and that preseason they went from a run-oriented team to a passing one. That carried over into September where the totals on Jaguar games were undervalued.

In Washington, the Redskins have a new look behind center after shipping out Donovan McNabb. Coach Mike Shanahan and son Kyle (the offensive coordinator) want John Beck to take command and be the starter, with Rex Grossman as the backup, so the injury in Week 1 to Beck put them a little behind. At Mike’s insistence, Washington traded for Beck before last season and rewarded him with a contract extension.

In an efficient preseason debut Friday night, Beck didn’t do anything to embarrass himself or his supportive mentors during a 16-3 victory over the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. He connected on 14 of 17 pass attempts. Beck had 140 yards, no turnovers and finished with a solid 101.0 passer rating.

Shanahan is a terrific offensive mind, something Bill Belichick has said for years. But he has flamed out with his quarterbacking choices over the last decade, drafting Brian Griese and trading for Jake Plummer while in Denver. Both didn’t work out that well and ended badly. Before leaving Denver he drafted Jay Cutler who has had his ups and downs. Now he’s banking heavily on Beck, who played at BYU.

Speaking of quarterbacks, the Browns have a talented second-year QB in Colt McCoy who continues to impress. He was 9 of 10 against the Packers in the preseason opener, then threw 3 TDs in Week 2, a 30-28 home loss to Detroit. Cleveland has a new coach in Pat Shurmer, who is opening things up on offense and getting good results with the kid QB. Shurmur displayed aggressive play-calling in the red zone, something Cleveland fans haven’t seen in decades.

On the flip side, the defense lost standout coordinator Rex Ryan and has been less than stellar. The defense gave up an 80-yard drive in eight plays on the Lions’ second possession, who were without star WR Calvin Johnson. Cleveland is already 2-0 over the total this preseason, a trend (like Jacksonville when Koetter arrived) that may continue in September. One other point: The Lions had 14 penalties for 123 yards, the Browns 12 for 88. Uggh!

Kansas City had better hope nothing happens to QB Matt Cassell this season, with Tyler Palko and rookie Ricky Stanzi short on experience and looking awful so far. That inexperienced showed in last week’s 25-0 home loss to Tampa Bay and a 31-13 loss at the Ravens. The Chiefs had just 137 yards in the opener and had trouble blocking for their quarterbacks.

Coach Todd Haley is developing a reputation like Tony Dungy and Jim Caldwell, caring little about the preseason. The Chiefs have some problems off the field, too: The story of the preseason has consequences both on and off the field, with WR Jonathan Baldwin, the first-year receiver who already carried a reputation as a diva, and RB Thomas Jones getting involved in an altercation, the second time that he has known to have fought a younger teammate. Reports are that Baldwin was the instigator, a bad sign for a player that was a first round pick.

The Patriots have new looks on the defensive line, including very good depth, but the real story of their defense is the secondary. They’ve shuffled around a lot of personnel at safety and it’s obvious that Belichick has dissatisfaction with the group, the same one that was last in the NFL in 2010 on third down.

The Rams have a new look on offense for quarterback Sam Bradford, bring in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The Rams have been a conservative, run-oriented team that last two years, but McDaniels has completely changed that, bringing in a thick playbook that spreads the field and attacks with an aggressive passing game.

Preseason can tell us quite a bit. A year ago in August I made this note: “And how bad it the Carolina offense going to be when the games mean something? The Panthers have scored 12 and 3 points in the first two preseason games.” Yes, they were abysmal in the games that didn’t count and worse in the ones that did count! Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

by Big Al McMordie

Las Vegas bettors were all over the dogs and the unders in the first week of preseason, with mixed results. Plenty of dogs got the money, with even the Seahawks, Cardinals and Dolphins winning straight up, but the games were not the conservative, low scoring affairs you normally expect in Week 1.

Early preseason often means boring, vanilla game plans, yet there was a slew scoring. The Patriots along hung 47 on Jacksonville, the Cardinals and Raiders had QB question marks yet combined for 42 points, while the Broncos/Cowboys tallied 47.

That Dallas/Denver game was interesting because both new coaches, Jason Garrett and John Fox, know each other well. Garrett was a player when Fox was an assistant with the NY Giants and the two have remained friendly since. The two contacted each other a few days before the game to go over their game plans, which is highly unusual.

Fox is a conservative offensive coach anyway, a proponent of the ground game, so everyone figured the two coaches agreed to play it safe, not show anything fancy on offense and try not to embarrass the other. The first half was played like that (9-3, Denver), but points and yards exploded in the second half with the backups and both teams finished with over 340 total yards, plus over 100 yards rushing.

In their first test of 2011, the Broncos ran the ball with authority. On the opening drive, the Broncos’ new tailback tandem of Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee combined for 40 yards rushing on six carries. And perhaps we shouldn’t be too surprised that Denver scored points, as their QB rotation is very good for preseason in Kyle Oron, Tim Tebow and Brady Quinn

The Cardinals and Raiders come into the season with question mark concerns, but they look improved. Arizona adds QB Kevin Kolb and tight end Todd Heap to a team that had horrendous QB play a year ago. Kolb played through the first quarter, completing 4 of 7 passes for 68 yards, including a long of 43 yards to Larry Fitzgerald. Kolb made good decisions, including opting to throw the ball to Fitzgerald when covered 1-on-1. That resulted in the 43-yard reception to the Raiders’ 35.

Oakland only had 18 points, but the offense completed 23 of 36 passes in the preseason opener. QB Jason Campbell completed 6 of 9 for 66 yards, Kyle Boller was 7-for-8 for 42 yards and Trent Edwards completed 10 of 19 for 140 yards and a well-placed touchdown pass to David Ausberry.
But new Coach Hue Jackson has a sloppy team, as Oakland had penalties, three fumbles and injuries. Note that backup cornerbacks Walter McFadden and DeMarcus Van Dyke had major troubles against Arizona. And what of the new head coach? The Cardinals received the ball at the start of both halves because the Raiders made a mistake after winning the coin toss. Instead of electing to defer, the Raiders told the referee they wanted to play defense. D’oh! We’ve come to expect that kind of sloppiness, on and off the field, from the Raiders lately.

Speaking of QB play, the Chiefs better hope nothing happens to Matt Cassell this season after a 25-0 home loss to Tampa Bay. Coach Todd Haley said during training camp that the focus would be on preparing for the Sept. 11 regular-season opener and not the initial preseason game.

Fans who watched the Chiefs go about their business at a leisurely pace in training camp inevitably suspected the first preseason game would be a sloppy, mistake-filled mess and they got exactly that. Tyler Palko and rookie quarterback Ricky Stanzi have so little experience, and poor tackling was a problem on defense. That was understandable to an extent given that the Chiefs held few full contact drills at training camp. Both quarterbacks completed four of eight passes for 34 yards. Stanzi, a fifth-round pick from Iowa, was sacked four times and Palko twice. Looks like a long preseason for KC!

Finally, some coaches want to win more than others, even if it’s preseason. Seattle pulled off another win for fiery Coach Pete Carroll, coming from behind to win at San Diego, 24-17. He got backup QB Charlie Whitehurst to throw 20 passes (14 completions) for 115 yards. San Diego QB Philip Rivers, meanwhile, only threw 6 passes.

This is actually nothing new. A year ago the Seahawks beat Tennessee in the opener, getting a win for Coach Carroll while rolling up 322 yards. Carroll had hinted all week that he wanted to win in preseason and QB Whitehurst threw for 214 yards. Carroll bolted from the edge of the field to the bench in the second quarter to congratulate the defense following a three-and-out stop in the second quarter. He had a hug for Whitehurst for his first TD throw. Who says preseason is meaningless? Not the emotional Carroll. Actually, we should all jump for joy because football is back! Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

by Big Al McMordie

Everyone’s looking at the matchups on the field for the Super Bowl as the Packers battle the underdog Steelers, but let’s start with the key guys carrying the clipboards on the sidelines. Pittsburgh Coach Mike Tomlin has been here before, just two years ago guiding the Steelers to a victory over Arizona, 27-23. So has his starting quarterback, with Ben Roethlisberger going for his third Super Bowl title here.

Green Bay Coach Mike McCarthy is in his first Super Bowl, but he’s no one-shot wonder. He has led the Packers to a top-10 ranking in total offense each of his five seasons, joining New Orleans as the only teams to accomplish that from 2006-10 and was honored as 2007 ‘NFL Coach of the Year’ by Motorola and NFL Alumni. So both coaches are young, but getting the job done over several years.

Green Bay will be trying to win its 13th NFL championship and its fourth Super Bowl. The Packers won Super Bowls I, II and XXXI and lost Super Bowl XXXII. The Packers became the first No. 6-seeded team in the NFC to advance to the Super Bowl since the league went to a 12-team playoff format in 1990. The Steelers did it in the AFC in 2005.

The Packers (13-6 SU/12-7 ATS) have a deadly passing offense behind 26-year old QB Aaron Rodgers (34 TDs, 13 INTs) and an outstanding defense, on a 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS run, winning twice as a dog in the postseason. The offense is 8th in yards, No. 5 in passing with 260 yards in the air per game with WRs Greg Jennings and James Jones. The defense held Atlanta to 194 total yards and forced 4 turnovers, then forced 3 more by the Bears.

The Steelers (14-4 SU/12-6 ATS) started 3-1 without their starting QB, but Roethlisberger (19 TDs, 5 INTs) has led them to an 11-3 SU/9-5 ATS run in his 14 starts. They’ve developed a decent ground game (120 yds pg) ranked 11th in the NFL behind RB Rashard Mendenhall (1,273 yards, 3.9 ypc), but the apparent loss of standout rookie center Maurkice Pouncey is one of the biggest stories. He was the No. 19 pick in the first round and has been an exceptional blocker, solidifying an offensive line that was below average a year ago. Remember, Pittsburgh didn’t even make the playoffs last season as defending champ.

The Steelers are going to try to run, just as they did so effectively against the New York Jets. In that game, they frequently ran out of multiple-tight-end formations. The more tight ends you have on the line of scrimmage, the more gaps you’ve added for a defense to contain. Rookie center Maurkice Pouncey, whom offensive coordinator Bruce Arians called “a freak” because of how well he has played, is unlikely to play because of a high ankle sprain. Doug Legursky probably will start in his place, the latest in a long string of offensive line reshuffles this season.

That tends to calm an aggressive, risk-taking defense such as Green Bay’s. If the Packers are poised to stop the run in a 3-4 formation — as opposed to bracing for the pass with a 2-4-5 — the Steelers will look to throw. Watch for Pittsburgh to look for a matchup of tight end Heath Miller covered by Green Bay linebacker A.J. Hawk.

Big Ben has been sacked 26 times in the past 8 games (5 to the Bills, 3 to Ravens, 4 to the Bengals, 3 to Jets, 3 to Carolina, 6 against the Ravens in the playoffs), so Green Bay will unleash the blitz — though the Jets did in the AFC Championship game and had minimal (2 sacks) success.

Look for the Steelers to throw a deep pass to speedy receiver Mike Wallace, probably early in the game. He led the Steelers with 1,257 yards receiving, 10 TDs, and averaged an astonishing 21 yards per reception! They threw deep to him on their first play from scrimmage when they played the Packers in 2009. Against the Jets, Wallace ran right past cornerback Darrelle Revis and might have scored had the ball not been underthrown. Like the Jets, the Packers have exceptional talent in the secondary.

The Packer secondary is largely unchanged from the regular-season game 14 months ago, won by the Steelers, 37-36, over the Packers. Ben Roethlisberger became only the third quarterback in NFL history to throw for more than 500 yards in that game, three touchdowns and no interceptions, beating the Packers on the final play in December 2009 — one of the most exciting games played at Heinz Field. Think he can do it again?

Three of the four Green Bay starters remain from that game — cornerbacks Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams (9 picks) and safety Nick Collins. The Packers defense led the NFL with the lowest opponent passer rating (67.2) and was second with 24 interceptions, one of the reasons they allowed an NFC-low 240 points. After a string of blowouts in the 1990s, we’ve had a nice run of exciting Super Bowls and let’s hope that continues – as well as being profitable! Good luck, as always….Al McMordie

We are down to the Final Four in the NFL: The Steelers and Jets are back again, joined by the Bears and Packers out of the black and blue division. Now you understand why the Packers dumped aging Brett Favre for Aaron Rodgers? Rodger completed 31 of 36 passes for 366 yards and three touchdowns Saturday against the Falcons in Atlanta, a 48-21 blowout win as an underdog.

That makes Green Bay 2-0 SU/ATS in the playoffs despite being a dog twice. The defense held Atlanta to 194 total yards and forced 4 turnovers, so this team is clicking everywhere. The defense has allowed 11.8 points per game the last 11 games. Green Bay is just 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS on the road, but who wants to play them now?

The Bears and Packers split two meetings and both sailed way under the total: Chicago won in Week 3, 20-17 on this field, while the Packers won at home in Week 17, 10-3, in a game the Bears didn’t care that much about. That Week 3 meeting was an odd game, as Rodgers threw for 316 yards and the Green Bay offense had the edge in yards 379-276. Cutler completed 16 of 27 passes with a touchdown and an interception and neither team could run the football. The Packers lost because of an astounding 18 penalties for 152 yards and 2 turnovers! They won’t be that sloppy again, so the Bears need to be better. Chicago has mustered 276 and 227 yards in two games against the Pack.

In the AFC the Steelers have a shot at another Super Bowl title and have home field against the loud mouth Jets. It has been the year of the underdog in the NFL and after the Jets upset the Pats Sunday, that makes the dog 5-3 SU/ATS in the postseason.

The Steelers (13-4 SU/11-6 ATS) started 3-1 without their starting QB, but Ben Roethlisberger (19 TDs, 5 INTs) is 10-3 SU/8-5 ATS in his 13 starts. The value of a talented, experienced quarterback was on display Saturday as Big Ben calmly led the Steelers from a 21-7 halftime deficit at home in a wild 31-24 comeback victory over rival Baltimore.

It was interesting to find out late that Coach Mike Tomlin did not pull a Knute Rockne at halftime, no fiery speech or uplifting words. Little occurred out of the ordinary as the Steelers left the field trailing by two touchdowns against Baltimore at Heinz Field. The instructions from a few veterans came quickly and decisively after an error-filled first half. “Get your heads up,” defensive end Brett Keisel said. “There’s a lot of football left to play.”

That’s the way to approach a winner-take-all playoff game: calmly, focused on execution each play, rather than looking at the scoreboard. And the Baltimore Ravens seemed to do the opposite, panicking as their lead wilted away. QB Joe Flacco was awful in the second half, particularly on the final drive. They had more than their share of chances to pull it out or force overtime but collapsed at crunch time.

The Ravens, who hadn’t allowed a touchdown in the third quarter all season, gave up two at Pittsburgh because of turnovers. “It’s unbelievable,” a distraught T.J. Houshmandzadeh said. “I can’t believe that happened. I can’t recall ever dropping the ball when the team needed the play.” Flacco added, “When you look at those turnovers and then you could look at it and say we beat ourselves.”

Rest assured the better team won: Pittsburgh held the edge in yards 263-126. With so few yards it’s amazing there was that much scoring. The only concern is that Roethlisberger was sacked six times, as injuries forced more juggling on the line. When these teams met a month ago Big Ben was sacked 3 times by the Jets.
The way to attack the Jets is with a balanced offense and the Steelers have it, with a decent ground game (120 yds pg) ranked 11th in the NFL behind RB Rashard Mendenhall (1,273 yards, 3.9 ypc) and rookie center Maurkice Pouncey. The Steelers have run on nearly half their plays (49 percent). That compares to 42.2 percent last season. And Big Ben can throw the football to a slew of talented targets, as we saw Saturday, with speedy WR Mike Wallace (1,257 yards, 10 TDs, averaging 21 yards per reception), veteran Hines Ward, TE Heath Miller and rookie receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown. They will be play to reach the Super Bowl for third time in six seasons.

The Steelers rallied despite losing both starting tackles, Flozell Adams (illness) and Jonathan Scott (leg), forcing even more patching of an offensive line that lost its projected two tackle starters to injuries months ago. Roethlisberger continues to take a pounding behind an offensive line that has allowed him to be sacked 24 times in the past 7 games (5 to the Bills, 3 to Ravens, 4 to the Bengals, 3 to Jets, 3 to Carolina, 6 more on Saturday against the Ravens).

The return of DE Brett Keisel has solidified the league’s No. 1 rush defense, holding the Ravens to 126 total yards on Saturday. The dominant Black and Gold defense is 2ndin the NFL in yards, tops in points allowing just 14.5 ppg, and has Troy Polamalu back. 48 quarterback sacks were just one more than last season and they sacked Joe Flacco 5 times the last game. Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU/5-3 ATS on the road.

On December 19th these teams met on this field, a 22-17 New York upset. Young QB Mark Sanchez stood up to the pressure created by the Steelers’ defense and his team’s two-game losing streak. Sanchez was sacked only once, and didn’t throw an interception for the first time in nine games. The Jets ran for 106 yards against a defense that came in allowing 60 yards rushing per game.

Pittsburgh had a big edge in yards, 377-276, including 146 yards rushing and didn’t turn the ball over, but the amazing Jets prevailed. The Steelers didn’t have injured safety Troy Polamalu (Achilles tendon) or injured Heath Miller (concussion). NY is on a 12-4 run over the total and 8-2 SU/ATS on the road. Maybe BOTH teams will talk trash this week! Good luck, as always….Al McMordie.

This is it, the final weekend of games before the Super Bowl. The last month we’ve been hearing about playoff seedings, bye weeks and home field advantage. Are all those things really important? Historically it has been during the second round of the playoffs. Teams with the bye have home field advantage and two weeks to prepare, both of which are usually important edges this time of year.

However, during the conference championship games that kick off this weekend, history shows us that the two remaining teams in each conference are often on fairly equal footing, both straight up and against the spread. You might think the team with the home field has a big edge.
The last two years all four home teams (Colts, Saints, Steelers, Cardinals) won plus went 3-1 ATS, but notice that since 1992, the home team has won just 20 of 36 NFL title games straight up, and the visiting team is 19-17 against the spread. Going 22-14 straight up is a slight edge for the home teams, though far from dominant than many might expect to find in the second-biggest game of the season.

Within those statistics remember that there have been road underdogs that not only got the money, but won the game and advanced to the Super Bowl. Three years ago both road teams covered. The Patriots topped San Diego, 21-12, but failed to cover, while the +7 underdog road Giants won at Green Bay, 23-20. Five years ago Pittsburgh was a road dog at Denver, but clobbered the Broncos 34-17.

In 1995, San Diego was a 9½-point dog at Pittsburgh, but pulled the upset 17-13. In 1999 Atlanta was an 11-point dog at 16-1 Minnesota, yet won 30-27 in overtime, while Tennessee flattened big home favorite Jacksonville, 33-14, in 2000. Nine years ago the Patriots were a double-digit dog at Pittsburgh but won 24-17, and seven seasons ago the upstart Panthers rained on the Eagles’ parade in a 14-3 NFC Championship game upset in a somewhat frustrated city of brotherly love.

Those were just the big underdogs that triumphed. Smaller dogs have won in the conference championship games, as well. When Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl, they won 27-10 at Philadelphia as a 4-point road dog. In fact, coming into this weekend, the dogs are 14-8 against the spread the last 11 years in the NFL title games. The NFC has seen the dog go 9-3 ATS the last 12 years, including the last two seasons when the Packers covered at New Orleans and the Cardinals were a home do to the Eagles. Philadelphia’s trouncing of the Falcons in 2005, 27-10, ended a six-year run by underdogs covering in the NFC championship tilt. Certainly you can’t discount home field advantage, something the Patriots used in consecutive years to beat up the indoor Colts, 24-14 and 20-3 in the Foxboro cold, with the Colts turning the trick at home in 2007. However, there is generally greater balance between teams simply because at this point in the season, the remaining four teams are very strong and often evenly matched. In mid-January, you rarely find a team that has glaring weaknesses, for example, ranking at the bottom of the NFL in some offensive or defensive category.

It’s difficult for teams with major weaknesses to make the playoffs in the first place, and if they do make it, opposing coaches will attack those weak spots to their own advantage. The cream rises, which is what competition is all about. You also know that teams will be playing at a high level of intensity, as there is so much at stake — the winners go to the Super Bowl, the losers go home and sulk about what might have been. After such a long season, teams that have come this close to the Holy Grail are going to give everything they have for four full quarters.
Slicing the history another way, we find that the favorites are 24-12 straight up in NFL championship games and 19-17 against the spread the last 18 years. The total is 22-14 “over” during that time (2-0 over last January). Oddly, there have been more blowouts by the underdog than the favorite. The NY Giants rolled 41-0 in 2001 over Minnesota as a 2-point home dog. In January of 2000, Tennessee ripped the Jaguars 33-14 as a 7-point road dog. Throw in a 16-3 Ravens win at Oakland, a 27-10 Tampa Bay victory at Philly in 2003, the Steelers rout at Denver and the Giants’ win at Green Bay last season and the road dogs have packed quite a playoff bite.

Several big favorites have struggled, as well. The Rams were a 13-point favorite over Tampa Bay in 2000, yet needed a late TD to survive, 11-6, eight years ago the 10-point favorite Rams came from behind to squeeze by Philly, 29-24, and in 2008 the Chargers were a +14 dog but stayed all the way in a cover at New England. Still, before you jump on the live dogs, remember that the favorites had a nice run of their own from 1993-97 going 8-2 against the spread in the NFL title games. This is why looking at trends and angles must be approached with great caution. The current trend: the favorites are on a 4-2 ATS run in Conference Championship games.