by Jim Feist

My friend and colleague Dave Cokin said it best the other day, “We’ve never really had a true national champion in division 1 college football” The reason is obvious to anyone paying attention. Without a playoff system like all other sports, we will never know for sure who is the best team in the country.

Like I said, if you’re paying attention, you already know that. Everyone pretty much expected the favorites to do their job and hold serve Saturday, but that isn’t close to what happened. Oklahoma State! Loses. Oregon! Upset. Oklahoma! Downed by Baylor.

Right now, I would say it’s all SEC teams — again. No one else matches up with the physicality of that conference. LSU and Alabama look like they could handle Stanford, Oregon, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State or Wisconsin, without much trouble. Boise State and Houston simply don’t matter since they play vastly inferior schedules. I would make either SEC team more than a TD favorite over group one and two touchdowns over group two.

Of course anything can happen when you meet on the field but we don’t get to see that, since the powers to be choose who can play for the phoney national championship.

What’s interesting about 2011 is that the one team not in the running for a bowl is USC. QB Matt Barkley has been playing lights out and may be a better than Andrew Luck. Don’t be surprised if Matt ends up going in the Top 10 in the NFL draft in April, possibly even number one.

(115) SOUTH FLORIDA (-3.5, ov52.0)
(116) SYRACUSE  (+3.5, un52.0)
Friday, Nov 11 2011, 05:00 PM PST
South Florida is a surprising 0-4 in the Big East. South Florida (4-4 SU/3-4 ATS) has lost 4 in a row under Coach Skip Holtz. Mobile junior QB B.J. Daniels (12 TDs, 5 INTs) runs a balanced offense that averages 33 points, 200 yards rushing and 266 yards passing. The Bulls played a no-huddle spread offense and got torched in a 44-17 loss at Pitt as a favorite, giving up 523 yards. The offense had 425 yards but turned it over twice. The defense was very good in 2010, allowing 20 ppg (22nd in the nation), and 23.6 ppg this season. But the Bulls had a stunner, losing 16-10 at UConn despite allowing just 253 yards. 4 turnovers did them in. Then they got into a shootout with Cincinnati and lost 37-34 at home. Saturday was more of the same as Rutgers snapped a two-game losing streak with a 20-17 victory over South Florida. South Florida had a whopping edge in yards, 381-228, but turned it over twice. They lost despite an edge in rushing yards 221-to-minus-7! South Florida had a chance to win the game in the waning seconds when B.J. Daniels hit Murray on a 34-yard pass and then ran 30 yards to give the Bulls a first-and-goal at the 10. But Bonani badly mishit a chip-shot 27-yard field goal on the final play of regulation and it went wide left forcing the overtime. They have 24 penalties in the last 3 games. South Florida is on a 12-6 run under the total. The Bulls are 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Syracuse (5-3 SU, 2-4-1 ATS) likes to blitz under Doug Marrone, but not as effective as last season, allowing 27 ppg. Junior QB Ryan Nassib (17 TDs, 6 INTs) leads this ball control offense returning senior RB Antwon Bailey. Nassib threw three touchdown passes to tight end Nick Provo, Dorian Graham returned a kickoff 98 yards for a critical score, and Syracuse stunned West Virginia 49-23. They racked up 443 yards (194 rushing) and forced 2 WV turnovers. Orange defensive end Chandler Jones had two sacks and six solo tackles in his first start after missing five games with an injury. Syracuse made its quantum leap on the strength of a blitzing defense that creates havoc for quarterbacks with an attacking 4-3 scheme employed by defensive coordinator Scott Shafer last fall. Things didn’t work out the last game, though, as Connecticut had a 28-21 win over Syracuse on Saturday. Syracuse lost despite allowing only 311 yards and getting 5 UConn turnovers. They turned it over 3 times themselves, which has been a problem. The Orange had a tough 19-16 OT loss at home to Rutgers turning it over 5 times (3 picks by Nassib). This defense is not as sharp as a year ago (even Tulane had 471 yards). The Orange is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. The Under is 12-5 in the Orange’s last 17 conference games. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

(381) USC (+9.5, ov57.0)
(382) NOTRE DAME  (-9.5, un57.0)
Saturday, Oct 22 2011, 04:30 PM PST
A long road trip for the Trojans, while Notre Dame is off its bye week. USC (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) has been sloppy again under second-year Coach Lane Kiffin, despite that record. The offense is good behind junior QB Matt Barkley (16 TDs, 4 picks), averaging 30 points, 297 yards passing and 133 yards rushing. All that sloppy play caught up with them in a 43-22 loss at Arizona State, turning it over 4 times along with 10 penalties. After winning three games at home to start the season, Kiffin said the key to success on the road was to bring the running game and the defense. And their defense has been spotty under him since last season. The Trojans forced five California turnovers and allowed only one touchdown to bail out the offense on a rare off night as USC won its eighth straight game in the series, 30-9 on Thursday. “We needed that,” USC Coach Lane Kiffin said. “It was much more important for this team to win like that and have a game like that for confidence after all the things that our defense has been hearing about them: staff, players, everybody involved.” It will get tougher against 4-2 Notre Dame and unbeaten Stanford, who both beat USC in Kiffin’s first season as head coach. And it will be even more difficult without cornerback Anthony Brown and if receiver Marqise Lee and tailback Marc Tyler are unavailable or limited because of injuries. Brown suffered a broken ankle early in the second quarter. This season their red zone defense is awful: The Trojans have allowed opponents to score 16 out of the first 17 times, including 14 touchdowns, when they’ve advanced inside the 20-yard line (14 TDs). The Trojans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Over is 8-1 in their last 9 games in October. Notre Dame (4-2 SU/3-3 ATS) loves to throw under coach Brian Kelly, adding an uptempo attack (32.3 ppg, 273 yds passing) to South Bend. Sophomore QB Tommy Rees (14 TDs, 6 INTs) is 8-1 as a starter and led the way in their first victory, a big 31-13 rout of Michigan State. The defense was sharp, allowing 29 yards rushing and 2 turnovers. The Irish defense racked up two sacks, five tackles for loss and 10 quarterback hurries – six from freshman defensive end Aaron Lynch in his coming-out party. Tommy Rees found four different receivers with first-half TD passes and seven Irish players reached the end zone as Notre Dame scored its most points since the end of the Lou Holtz era 15 years ago and routed Air Force 59-33 two weeks ago. Rees was 19 of 25 for 208 yards in the first half and finished 23 of 32 for 261 yards. Notre Dame has 15 turnovers in 6 games, but none the last two. The entire defensive front returns along with linebacker Manti Te’o, allowing 21 ppg. The under is 13-5 in Notre Dame’s last 18 games as a favorite. The Fighting Irish are 8-16 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings, the favorite is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

(385) WASHINGTON (+20.5, ov63.0)
(386) STANFORD  (-20.5, un63.0)
Saturday, Oct 22 2011, 05:00 PM PST
A huge Pac-12 North showdown! The Cardinal ( 4-0 Pac-12) now enters the heart of its schedule, starting here with Washington (3-0 Pac 12). Washington (5-1 SU, 5-0 ATS) Coach Steve Sarakasian runs a pro-style attack with junior QB Keith Price (21 TDs, 3 INTs) and RB Chris Polk, averaging 36 points and 251 yards passing. This up and down defense is experienced, though they allowed 29 ppg last fall and the same number this season. Washington had a loss at Nebraska, 51-28, as the offense had 420 yards (274 passing). Price was 21 of 37 for 274 yards, 4 TDs but he was intercepted twice. Sarkisian talked about the ability of Keith Price to audible, either to entirely change plays or change portions of plays (such as a receiver’s route) or protections. Sarkisian had said before the season that was something he thought Price would be able to do well due to his comfort in the team’s offensive system, having been in it for all three years that Sarkisian has been the coach. Price continued his assault on Washington’s record book with four first-half touchdown passes, and Washington made its case for a national ranking with an impressive 52-24 rout of Colorado on Saturday. The Huskies compiled nearly 400 yards of offense in the first half and led 38-10 at the break. The Huskies are 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, but 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with Stanford. Stanford (6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS) offensive coordinator David Shaw was promoted to head coach, so the same offensive style remains. Star QB Andrew Luck (18 TDs, 3 INTs) leads an offense that is averaging 46 points, 196 yards rushing and 285 passing. They can play defense (10 ppg allowed), too, after giving up 17 ppg last year. Stanford returns six defensive starters to a unit that finished ranked 10th in the nation in scoring defense. The Cardinal (3-0 Pac-12) has the nation’s longest winning streak at 14 games. Luck threw two third-quarter touchdown passes to Levine Toilolo as No. 7 Stanford beat Washington State 44-14 Saturday with an edge in yards 475-257. Stanford’s defense, which held Washington State nearly 27 points below its average (40.6) For the game, Luck completed 23 of 36 passes for 336 yards and four touchdowns. He also threw an interception, his third of the season. Stanford receiver Chris Owusu left the game in the first quarter after a sledgehammer hit by WSU safety Casey Locker that left Owusu on his back for several minutes. He watched the remainder of the game from the sideline. Stanford is on a 7-5 run over the total. The Cardinal is 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up win.

(387) AUBURN (+20.5, ov47.0)
(388) LSU  (-20.5, un47.0)
Saturday, Oct 22 2011, 12:30 PM PST
The Auburn Tigers (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) run an uptempo attack under offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, averaging 26 points and over 170 yards rushing and passing. Junior QB Barrett Trotter (10 TDs, 6 INTs) has been OK, though they gave sophomore QB Clint Moseley (0 TDs, 0 INTs) time in Saturday’s 17-6 home win over Florida. The offense did little, but the usually weak Tiger defense allowed 196 yards to the stumbling/injured Gators. Moseley replaced starter Barrett Trotter to start the second half and completed 4-of-7 passes for a game-high 90 yards. He watched as Auburn’s defense held Florida to 194 yards. Auburn converted just 1-of-13 third-down conversions. Florida was just 3-of-13. Auburn chased quarterbacks Jacoby Brissett and Jeff Driskel, sacking them four times. They also had a 16-13 upset at No. 10 South Carolina. The Tigers (3-1 SEC) still struggled to move the ball against South Carolina’s defense. Trotter had thrown two interceptions and was sacked four times by the Gamecocks. The ground game has 5-9 sophomore RB Michael Dyer and junior RB Onterio McCalebb. Auburn’s defense was the problem in a 38-24 loss at Clemson, giving up 624 yards (238 rushing). They also had a 38-14 loss at Arkansas giving up 438 yards (176 rushing). The Tigers are 11-2 ATS in their last 14 conference games. LSU (7-0 SU, 6-0 ATS) has a ton of talent, especially on defense. They had a huge win over Oregon (40-27), and a defensive pounding of Mississippi State (19-6). Senior QB Jarrett Lee (10 TDs, 1 INTs) has been pretty good, though the ground game leads the way behind soph RBs Spencer Ware and Mike Ford, a dynamic one-two backfield punch. 8 starters return on offense, including the entire offensive line. The defense (11 ppg allowed) has a ton of talented pieces, with sophomore CB Tyrann Matheiu. They pounded Florida, 41-11, allowing 213 total yards as LSU had over 200 yards rushing AND passing. LSU’s offense continued to improve with a balanced attacked and season-high 453 yards. They played at the banged-up Tennessee Vols on Saturday and had no trouble in a 38-7 rout with 263 yards rushing. The Tigers held the ball for 38:19, running 69 plays to 48 for Tennessee. LSU had 51 rush plays to just 18 passes, with seven players getting carries. The Tigers had 23 first downs to 11 for the Vols. “I like using both quarterbacks,” LSU coach Les Miles said. “I think it’s what’s best, it’s what we need to do. I think both guys can do different things and we like to do that. We’ll continue to do that.” The Under is 16-7-1 in the Tigers last 24 games on grass. LSU is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win. The home team is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings, the Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.

(389) WISCONSIN (-7.0, ov50.0)
(390) MICHIGAN STATE  (+7.0, un50.0)
Saturday, Oct 22 2011, 05:00 PM PST
Mighty Wisconsin (6-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS) has a stacked offense with sophomore RB James White, junior Montee Ball and speedy 6-3 senior WR Nick Toon, great weapons for new QB Russell Wilson (14 TDs, 1 INT). He is a terrific talent and a great fit coming over from NC State. The Badgers run defense is stout behind tackles Jordan Kohout and Patrick Butrym, allowing 10 ppg. Cornerback Devin Smith’s (broken foot) senior season at Wisconsin ended prematurely. CB Marcus Cromartie is playing in his spot with the No. 1 defense. Wisconsin had as 48-17 rout of the No. 8 Nebraska with 486 yards (231 rushing). They are third nationally in scoring offense (48.4 ppg) and tied for second nationally in scoring defense (10.2 ppg). And Wilson is second nationally in passing efficiency (216.89 points). The Badgers faced Nebraska without starting strong safety Shelton Johnson (calf) and starting defensive end David Gilbert (broken foot). Gilbert is expected to be out from four to six weeks. Wilson caught a 25-yard touchdown pass from Montee Ball on a trick play, then spent much of the afternoon handing to Ball for big gains as Wisconsin beat Indiana 59-7 on Saturday. Toon’s injury is to the same foot he had surgery on in the offseason, but he’s not expected to miss an extended period of time. Brett Bielema said they briefly considered playing Toon on Saturday. The Badgers are 28-9-1 ATS in their last 38 games after allowing less than 21 points in their previous game. The Badgers are 12-0-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall, the Over is 21-7-1 in their last 29 conference games. Michigan State (5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) also has a strong offense averaging 28 points and 269 yards passing behind senior QB Kirk Cousins (8 TDs, 4 INTs), senior WR B.J. Cunningham (621 yards) and junior RB Edwin Baker. The main concern is the offensive line and they flopped in a 31-13 loss at Notre Dame, even though they outgained the Irish 358-275. Cousins was 34-for-53 for 329 yards. The defensive front is among the Big Ten’s best with Jerel Worthy, plus Kevin Pickelman and Blake Treadwell allowing 12 ppg. The Spartans are No. 1 nationally in total defense (173.4 ypg). Keshawn Martin scored twice in the third quarter on similar lunges to the end zone, and No. 23 Michigan State held off Denard Robinson and No. 11 Michigan 28-14 on Saturday for its fourth straight victory over the Wolverines. It was an impressive win, holding the explosive Michigan offense to 250 total yards. Michigan State finished with seven sacks and 10 tackles for loss. It held Michigan to 250 total yards and just 82 on the ground. Michigan came into the game averaging 457.5 yards of total offense and 257 yards rushing. They are 2-0 in the Big 10. The Spartans are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings, the Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

by Scott Spreitzer

Each week throughout the college football season, Scott will dissect the new top-25 rankings on Monday evenings and post what he feels is the week’s most overrated top-25 team, along with the most underrated team, and an unranked team that he feels should be in the top-25.

MOST OVERRATED TOP-25 TEAM: Texas Longhorns

Usually when I write about an overrated, yet ranked team, I pick a team in the top-15. But I feel the top-15 is pretty solid this week, other than the fact Stanford is still underrated. But in their case, I can understand why six teams are ranked higher than the Cardinal. Texas, however, does not belong in the top-25. I mentioned on a TV show before their game with OU that the Red River Rivalry was likely to become the Red River Blood-letting…and it did. Texas has no passing game. It caught up with them (among other things) against Oklahoma and will catch up with them down the road against decent competition. The Longhorns are 75th in the nation in passing offense and teams will be able to load-up against the ground game, forcing the onus of the offense onto the shoulders of its young signal callers. Beating Rice, BYU, UCLA, and Iowa State, are not qualifications for breaking into the rankings. And the way they got bombed by OU simply proves my point. The Longhorns better right the ship quickly with the high-flying Oklahoma State Cowboys coming to Austin this weekend. Texas is this week’s Most Overrated Top-25 team.

MOST UNDERRATED TOP-25 TEAM: Stanford Cardinal

We have to put Stanford in this position again. Yes, you will hear some saying that the Cardinal haven’t played the most difficult schedule so far. But they simply don’t let up. Only two teams in the top-10 can say they are in the top 10 in total offense, total defense, and scoring offense and defense. Arkansas & Stanford are those teams. Everyone knows about next year’s #1 pick in the NFL draft, Andrew Luck. But this team is also loaded at receiver. No less than five receivers have between 12 and 25 receptions this season and four of them average more than 12 yards per reception. Very few talk about the Cardinal defense. They fly after the ball and don’t miss tackles. This team is 20th in total defense, 2nd against the run, and 6th in ppg allowed (10.6). As I said last time I posted Stanford in this slot: This team is about as balanced as it gets and I’ll be shocked if they aren’t 7-0 when they play at USC in late October. I believe Stanford has every right to be in the top-5, but apparently the pollsters don’t feel the same way. Good thing we don’t care what the pollsters think! Stanford is this week’s most underrated team.

UNRANKED TEAM THAT SHOULD BE RANKED: Notre Dame & Georgia

We have called for both of these teams to be ranked in the top-25 over the past few weeks and nothing has changed. Notre Dame is tearing teams up now that they have learned to hang onto the football. The Irish gave away their first two games, but have won four in a row over Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, and Air Force, by an average margin of 18.8 ppg. It seems the only time we hear about Georgia on the networks is when there’s a discussion about coaches on the hot seat. But Mark Richt is better than he’s given credit for and all his team has done is win four straight games, including double-digit wins over Ole Miss and Mississippi State, to go along with last week’s win in Knoxville. UGA has held those three SEC teams to an average of 225.3 total yards per game on just 3.63 yards per play! Next up is a road game at Vandy before a bye week. UGA should enter their Ocotber 29 game with Florida on a 5-game win streak. Georgia & Notre Dame are two teams that should be ranked in this week’s polls.

by Big Al McMordie

Patience. It’s important not to panic when wagering on sports for a variety of reasons. Patience and a calm, analytical demeanor help you identify winning teams and situations, which improve your chances of getting the money at the betting window. Patience also helps you see teams and seasons clearly, because things are not always as they seem.

Some teams are not as good as they appear. This is most evident when it comes to teams that are overvalued or undervalued against the Las Vegas line. For example, Minnesota started off with an impressive loss at USC, 19-17, a long road trip. Most impressive was the play of the defense, which was horrible in recent years but they have a new coach this season in Jerry Kill. He worked wonders at Northern Illinois, building them into a MAC powerhouse. It appeared he was working his magic at Minnesota, but the team has played poorly since, losing to New Mexico State and North Dakota State, both at home.

Part of the reason is that Kill began dealing with health issues and had to leave the sidelines, and part was that the defense is now looking as bad as last season. The point is, Week 1 appeared to be more of a fluke, especially defensively. They gave up 421 yards to a week New Mexico State offense, then 139 rushing yards to North Dakota State.

BYU came into this season with a huge offensive line and a history of running the football well for coach Bronco Mendenhall. On paper they looked just as strong again, yet their running game has been atrocious. What is going on? In this case, they have a new offensive coordinator in Brandon Doman, who wants to have an explosive passing attack. They have changed their playbook and style and it is taking some time to learn. It may happen at some points, or it may not happen at all, which is why it’s important to keep track of what’s happening and the reasons why it’s happening.

Remember a year ago when BYU had a home loss to Nevada allowing 435 yards (239 rushing)? Well Nevada is not as devastating on the ground this season because they lost their star QB to the NFL and are going with a freshman now.

Other times, a team flies under the radar and is better than expected. South Florida had a sizzling 4-0 SU/3-0 ATS start to the season before Pitt walloped them the last game. What is happening is that the offense is so much more poised under Coach Skip Holtz, who is beginning his second season. They are still on a 9-3 SU, 7-4 ATS run, behind mobile junior QB B.J. Daniels (8 TDs, 1 INT) on a balanced offense that averages 39 points and 280 yards passing. They had an emotional game at Notre Dame, a terrific 23-20 upset. They gave up 508 yards to the Irish, but forced 5 turnovers and were opportunistic, with Kayvon Webster returning a fumble 96 yards for an early touchdown. The defense was very good in 2010, allowing 20 ppg (22nd in the nation) and is about the same even after Pitt beat them. The Bulls also had a 52-24 rout of UTEP as the offense had 575 yards (373 rushing), as QB Daniels had 202 yards passing and 130 rushing.

A year ago at this time South Florida was struggling badly on offense and the reason is they were learning a new offense. They excelled in the second half of last season and are picking right up where they left off with a slew of returning players. Even in that loss to Pitt the offense had 425 yards (202 rushing). They should continue to be a Big East force.

Things change all the time in college and pro football. Speaking of which, how about those Kansas City Chiefs? A year ago they were a playoff team, but everything is going wrong this season. The offense has been awful, losing offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, along with a huge list of key injuries.

The Chiefs lost tight end Tony Moeaki to a season-ending left ACL injury in their final preseason game. Linebacker Brandon Siler was lost during training camp to a torn Achilles, and wide receiver Jon Baldwin — their first-round draft pick — hasn’t been a full participant in practice since early in camp after hurting his right thumb during an altercation with a teammate. And they just lost star RB Jamaal Charles (knee, out for the season), so it’s hard to make a case for this offense to get any better.

And the Bills are a team offensively that should continue to be potent offensively. They started last season bad offensively, until QB Ryan Fitzpatrick torched the New England secondary in a wild 38-30 game. The offense improved significantly with him in the lineup and that has carried over to this season, where they are torching everyone. Remember that Buffalo had a new offensive coordinator and head coach last season and they wanted to opening things up more, which we saw in preseason. The point is, changes happen all the time and one needs to keep close track finding edges in the side or total.

Many times things aren’t as they appear. One season, the Chicago Bears began 0-3 with a miserable 49-7 loss at San Francisco in the opener. They were christened the worst team in football by many observers. However, the defense began to come around, QB changes were made and the Bears went 8-3 against the spread the next 11 games, including straight up wins as +3, +4 and +10 dogs. After the Pats got smoked in the 2003 opener, 31-0, they went an incredible 17-1 straight up, and 14-3-1 against the spread on the way to winning the Super Bowl. Again, appearances can be deceptive. Patience and an astute eye for details and the big picture help handicappers turn incorrect perceptions into profits.

by Scott Spreitzer

Each week throughout the college football season, Scott will dissect the new top-25 rankings on Monday evenings and post what he feels is the week’s most overrated top-25 team, along with the most underrated team, and an unranked team that he feels should be in the top-25.

MOST OVERRATED TOP-25 TEAM: Nebraska Cornhuskers

Nebraska becomes the first team to receive Most Overrated status twice this season. The Huskers had serious problems slowing down the offenses of Fresno State and Washington and the defensive line was pushed around for over two quarters by Wyoming. I found it interesting that Wyoming HC Dave Christian told the game announcers before the contest that he felt his team could run the football with success right at the Nebraska defensive front. All-American DT Jared Crick hopes to be back this week after missing the Wyoming game. But even when he was healthy, the Huskers still struggled up front in games three and four. The fact is, if you can’t stop interior rushing against Fresno, Washington, and Wyoming, just imagine what this team could be in for when it faces Wisconsin. Making matters worse, QB Taylor Martinez is a bad decision maker in passing situations. But then again, he does make up for it with a horrible arm! Even if the “Blackshirts” get it together, the offense is so bad in passing situations that it will catch up to them sooner rather than later…and quite possibly often, in Big-10 play. For the second time this season, Nebraska ranks as our Most Overrated Top-25 team of the week.

MOST UNDERRATED TOP-25 TEAM: (Tie) CLEMSON & VA TECH

It’s going to be fun in Blacksburg this Saturday. For the first time ever, we have two teams listed in our Most Underrated section. Best of all, the two teams play each other this weekend. Clemson is off to a great start in HC Dabo Swiney’s 4th season. We had them a couple of weeks ago when they knocked off the Auburn Tigers. No letdown last weekend for Clemson as they grabbed another win against a ranked opponent, beating the Florida State Seminoles. The offense is truly clicking, averaging over 500 yards per game. They’re 16th in the nation in passing offense, and averaging over 190 yards rushing per contest. This will be the most dangerous offense Va Tech has faced so far this season.

Virginia Tech may not have the individual talent that Frank Beamer has had with past editions, but I believe this is one of his better overall teams. The Hokies are averaging over 430 yards per game and 211 yards rushing per contest. But once again, it’s the fierce Bud Foster defense that wins games for the Hokies. Va Tech is allowing just 231.2 yards per game, which ranks 4th in the nation in total defense. They’re 2nd against the run allowing 43 yards per game, and 10th in FBS in scoring defense. Va Tech’s defense and Clemson’s offense are both better than they’re given credit for, and the teams tie for our Most Underrated teams in this week’s top-25.

UNRANKED TEAM THAT SHOULD BE RANKED: GEORGIA

I could have easily made a case for Notre Dame for the second straight week. But I believe the Georgia Bulldogs are more deserving of this spot. Yes, the team is just 2-2, but the losses came against Boise State and South Carolina, a 3-point loss. Mark Richt has recruited talented players across the board and the team has bounced back with a pair of impressive wins. UGA piled up 475 total yards on almost 6 yards per play at Ole Miss this past Saturday, while holding the Rebels to 183 total yards on just 3.3 yards per play! Despite opening with Boise & South Carolina, the Bulldog defense ranks 13th in total defense, 8th against the pass, and they’re allowing just 119.8 yards rushing per contest. They’ll host a struggling but dangerous Mississippi State team this weekend and UGA better bring their “A-game.” If they do, UGA will win and should be ranked next week for sure. Mississippi State runs a boring offensive game plan and UGA should be prepared on the defensive side of the ball. Georgia is underrated in my book and is this week’s team that should be ranked.

by Big Al McMordie

We all like dogs, especially puppies. But let’s face it: the best puppies of all are the ones catching points and straight up wins, as football dogs can provide excellent value for your betting dollar. Dogs are unique in that you’re not asking them to win the game, just hang in there around the number. And if you have a big dog that’s winning the game, like the Bills last week (up 20-7 at the half) you’re feeling extra confident about your selection.

The Bills were a road dog at Kansas City in the opener. A close look at the matchup found a KC team that overachieved last season, was handicapped significantly last season (all they could do on offense was run the football , for the most part) and their first round pick (WR Jon Baldwin) is already a bust, not practicing with the team because he fought with his own teammates! Furthermore, the Chiefs were a joke in preseason, not winning a game and having no offense.

They were facing a Buffalo team that had a bad first half last year, but once they inserted QB Ryan Fitzpatrick he jumpstarted the offense, playing great under him. When a below average team has a competent quarterback, especially a young one (like Tampa Bay, Arizona, St. Louis, Cleveland, Detroit) they can offer value as a dog, especially at home.

The Bills didn’t even need the points in a 41-7 pasting of the lifeless Chiefs. Now everyone realizes the Chiefs have a lot of problems and that preseason was not a mirage. “We’re not there yet,” Bills coach Chan Gailey warned. No kidding! Oh, and that kid Fitzpatrick was 17 of 25 passing with 4 TDs and no picks.

The Bears, Rams and Redskins were also home dogs, with two winning straight up. A year ago in the NFL Week 1 we saw a string of home dogs play extremely well, and several (Steelers, Texans, Seahawks, Redskins, Chiefs) won outright. In Week 2 we saw a young, hungry Tennessee Titan team with a new coach as a home dog…and the upset the Ravens. Watch out for underdogs that have above average quarterbacks, like the Bills and Titans with newcomer Matt Hasselbeck.

Many times home dogs can be worth a serious look, especially in college football where emotion, tradition and fan support are such key components. For example, a year ago this week Kansas was a home dog against No. 15 Georgia Tech and won 28-25.

The Jayhawks were off that embarrassing home loss to North Dakota State, 6-3, and wanted badly to get a win for a first-year Coach, Turner Gill. It was a marquee game, too, against the 15th ranked team in the country, a team that was the defending ACC champion, so it was no ordinary game.

“There was a big sense of urgency,” said Kansas wide receiver Daymond Patterson.

“They came out mad,” said Yellow Jacket quarterback Joshua Nesbitt. “You could tell that they came out mad from losing their last game and they came out hungry.”

Emotion plays an important role in college football. Many times, like Kansas, a home dog has more motivation because of what happened the previous week, introducing a new coach, or homecoming. I recall a few years ago when East Carolina was a home dog to Army, despite the fact that Army had a poor defense. Army had a better known head coach at the time, Bobby Ross, but they should have been favored, coming off an 0-13 season the previous year.

Army was TD favorite despite recently ending a 19-game losing streak! Yes, Army was improved, but they were still eons away from being an average football team and here they were a favorite – on the road, no less. That alone made whoever Army was playing worth a peak.

At the time, East Carolina was a bad road team, like Army, but they were far more competitive in front of the home crowd. In that game, East Carolina ended up with 38 points and 426 total yards as their QB carved up the Cadet secondary (26-of-36 for 285 yards, 3 TDs and no interceptions). Winning the turnover battle 3-0, which is the most difficult thing to try and predict, was the final piece of the puzzle as home dog EC not only covered getting points but won the game, 38-28. This was not a great shock, either, as the Pirates were 3-0 SU/ATS the previous three meetings with Army, winning 38-32, 59-24 and 49-26.

It’s important to examine how teams perform at home as to on the road. A year ago Nevada walked (or ran) all over California, 52-31. Colin Kaepernick ran for 148 yards and three touchdowns as the Wolf Pack lead the nation averaging 588 yards of total offense.

“They’d be competitive in the Pac-10,” said Cal Coach Jeff Tedford. And as a home dog. For bettors, getting points with dogs is great especially when you’ve identified a dog that you think has a chance to be competitive or even win the game. Good handicappers don’t need miracles to pull out ATS covers, just sound judgment and analysis before the kickoff.

by Big Al McMordie

College football is littered with weeks where teams are soaring high off big wins, only to fall flat on their face the next week. This is the classic example of emotion taking too much out of a club that they are out of gas the following game.

Virginia Tech experienced this last September. After that hard fought, emotionally gut-wrenching last second defeat on national TV to Boise, 33-30, the Hokies had to face James Madison on short rest. Virginia Tech laid a colossal egg in a stunning 21-16 defeat. It’s not a lack of talent on this team, or that they were overrated. Virginia Tech had a tremendous amount of talent on both sides of the ball, plus a great coaching staff. The defense only allowed 235 yards to James Madison.

The last previous times the Hokies faced James Madison, they won 43-0 and 47-0. “I don’t know what’s going on,” tailback Ryan Williams said at the time. “I really don’t.”

But they were not in sync, making mistakes and missed tackles. Virginia Tech was the second ranked team to lose to a lower division team. The first was No. 5 Michigan, which fell 34-32 to I-AA Appalachian State on Sept. 1, 2007. Last week Auburn nearly got upset by Utah State, needing a miraculously late run to avoid a stunning defeat. They nearly became the first defending champ to lose their home opener since Michigan in 1998 (to Notre Dame).

What’s happening is that there are things beyond stats, matchups and even coaching tendencies: Emotion. Emotion is such a huge part of college football. Sometimes a team will be so fired up and focused to play a team that, on paper, they have no business playing well against, but they perform as a unit far better than anyone might expect.

The catch is, a team can’t do this every week. All that focused energy will take a toll with burnout, or a big letdown, around the corner. Other times a team is off a huge downer in a marquee game, like Virginia Tech, and does not have the intensity or focus it needs the next week.

Another example is when a team is off a terrible loss to a team that it is supposed to beat. The following week that team can be embarrassed by what happened and put in a monster week of practice, ready to come out firing on all cylinders the next game, not matter who they play.

Remember Kansas one year ago? New Coach Turner Gil had egg on his face when the Jayhawks fell apart in the opener, a stunning 6-3 home loss to North Dakota State. Everything went wrong on offense and there were even calls for his firing – just one week into his tenure!

Then all was forgotten and forgiven when the Jayhawks came out as a big underdog and smacked around No. 15 Georgia Tech, 28-25. Tech coach Paul Johnson was well aware of the emotional highs and lows of college football. While preparing for Kansas he told his Yellow Jackets, “How would you like to have lost to some small school? You’d play the next week like this was the Super Bowl. You guys had better be ready to face a tornado.”

“It was a rough week for the team,” Kansas junior tight end Tim Biere said. “And the locker room after the game, there’s never been anything like it. Maybe after the Missouri game, when Todd (Reesing) threw (a game-winning touchdown pass) to Kerry (Meier, to beat the Tigers in 2008). Maybe I could compare it to that, but other than that it was the best thing I’ve ever been a part of.”

It went far beyond Xs and Os, trends, angles and matchups. It was KU’s first home victory against a Top-15 opponent since the Jayhawks beat No. 2 Oklahoma, 28-11, in 1984.

Note what Gill said after the win: “As they come in Monday, I need to see where their focus is,” Gill said. “They’ve shown me how they handle a loss, now I need to see how they handle a win, how they handle prosperity.” It’s the coach’s job to gauge where a team is mentally and that can influence how hard he pushes them in practice. And bad coaches won’t pay attention or be clueless about it.

Two years ago Penn State had an emotional roller coaster in September. After a 3-0 start against weak teams, the Nittany Lions had a showdown with Iowa, their Big 10 opener. The Lions laid an egg in a 21-10 loss at home. The next week the Lions were a 7-point favorite over Illinois and crushed the Illini, 35-17.

So did Oregon. The Ducks had their biggest win in years, a show stopping 47-20 rout of rival USC that put them in the driver’s seat for the Pac 10 title. Coach Chip Kelly was in his first season as head coach and the players talked about the intense focus that Kelly has preached to his team, particular last week after the tremendous high from beating USC. Kelly wasn’t worried about a letdown against the Stanford Cardinal the next week.

“It’s a special team,” Kelly said. “Their mindset is really good right now. We all live in the moment.” Well they were living out of the moment the next Saturday, with the defense having an out of body experience in a 51-42 loss at Stanford as a favorite.

Travel time is another factor tied into this, with many non-conference teams travelling a long way. Keep an eye on Stanford this week, flying across the country to play a non-conference game at Duke, then having to fly to Arizona State for its Pac 10 opener next week. Keep close tabs on teams that are on highs and lows and team travel, because that can work for them or against them the following week – regardless of how oddsmakers may see the game. Good Luck, as always, Big Al.

by Jim Feist

The countdown continues! Last week we looked at my Top 21-40, this week is my Top 20. The college football season kicks off September 1st and here’s a look at college football’s best!

20. Southern Miss: The Golden Eagles (8-5 SU/6-6 ATS in 2010) have an uptempo attack under Coach Larry Fedora, with a strong offense (36.8 ppg) and a below average defense (29.5 ppg allowed). They return senior QB Austin Davis (20 TDs, 6 INTs, 3,103 yards), plus speedy senior WR Kelvin Bolden (722 yards) and sophomore RB Kendrick Hardy (903 yards, 6.5 ypc). This offense averaged 200.8 yards rushing and 252.5 passing, one of the best in the country. Southern Miss usually plays a tough schedule, but it’s softer this fall. They have made bowl appearance in 13 of the past 16 seasons and should again.

19. Georgia Tech: Paul Johnson’s run-oriented squad (327 yards rushing per game, No. 1 in the nation) averaged 27.6 points, but folded down the stretch because of injuries. Because of it, sophomore QB Tevin Washington (2 TDs, 3 INTs) ran for 514 yards as a freshman and is ready to run the attack. A guy to watch in the young backfield is junior RB Orwin Smith, who ran for 516 yards last season and a sizzling 9.7 yards per carry!
Georgia Tech installed a 3-4 defense last season under new defensive coordinator Al Groh, one of three new assistants on defense, but allowed 26 ppg. Still, they ended the season on a 7-2 run under the total and held Air Force to 14 points in the bowl. They are on a 7-5 SU/8-4 ATS run on the road.

18. Michigan State: Only five starters are back on offense, but many of the key players are part of the returning mix, led by behind senior QB Kirk Cousins (20 TDs, 10 INTs, 2,825 yards), senior WR B.J. Cunningham and junior RB Edwin Baker (1,201 yds, 5.8 ypc). The main concern is the offensive line.
The defense allowed 22.3 ppg (39th in the country), and the defensive front should be among the Big Ten’s best with Jerel Worthy, plus Kevin Pickelman and Blake Treadwell. The schedule is not easy, with a September 17 game at Notre Dame and road games at Iowa and Nebraska. Michigan State is 14-26 ATS its last 40 home games.

17. Missouri: Head Coach Gary Pinkel’s squad was explosive offensively again last season, averaging 29.8 points, 156 yards rushing and 253 yards passing. They need to replace QB Blaine Gabbert, but have promising candidates in sophomore QB James Franklin and freshman QB Corbin Berkstresser, one of the most highly-touted quarterback prospects in the nation.
The offensive line returns senior starter LT Elvis Fisher and senior RB De’Vion Moore (519 yards) is back, plus sophomore RB Henry Josey and junior RB Kendial Lawrence averaged 5.8 yards per carry. Despite the offense getting all the attention, this defense was No. 6 in the country allowing 16.1 ppg (8-4 under the total). A key addition looks like JUCO transfer DT Sheldon Richardson, who will help the defensive line and could be a Big 12 star. Missouri is 40-14 SU, 24-23 ATS its last 54 home games.

16. Arizona: The Wildcats (7-5 SU, 3-8 ATS) underachieved, starting 7-1 before collapsing. Injuries and bad luck were the culprits, losing to USC by 3 and Arizona State by a point, but capped by an awful bowl loss to Oklahoma State (36-10). The 2011 offense is led by senior QB Nick Foles (20 TDs, 10 INTs, 3,191 yards) and senior RB Keola Antolin (668 yards, 4.7 ypc). The biggest question on offense is along an offensive line that will be breaking in five new starters.
The receiver position is headlined by playmaking senior WR Juron Criner (1,244 yards) and senior WR Dave Douglas (515 yards), the top two receivers. Arizona will be solid at linebacker and cornerback where everyone returns. They allowed just 3.6 yards per rush and were strong against the pass. The schedule is their biggest problem, though Arizona is 20-14 ATS its last 33 as an underdog and they are 15-10 UNDER the total at home the last five years.

15. Georgia: Despite making a bowl, Georgia (6-7 SU/4-8 ATS) had a tough season with a new QB for the third straight season in redshirt freshman Aaron Murray. Murray is back for his sophomore season and put up strong numbers (24 TDs, 8 INTs, 3,049 yards). The offensive line gets three starters back and should look to run the pigskin first with a dynamite one-two backfield punch of junior RB Washain Easley (811 yards, 5.2 ypc) and senior RB Caleb King (430 yards, 5.4 ypc).
The defense allowed just 22.1 ppg and is loaded, led by senior LB Marcus Downtin and LBs Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree. Sports bettors take note: Georgia is 38-15 SU/29-24 ATS on the road under Head Coach Mark Richt, though 1-4 SU/ATS last season.

14. Florida State: 2010 saw new Coach Jimbo Fisher take charge and the Seminoles were impressive, going 10-4. This offense was very balanced, averaging 31.4 points, 171 yards rushing and 209.9 yards passing and senior QB E.J. Manuel (4 TDs, 4 INTs) gets the full time nod. RB Chris Thompson (846 yards, 6.4 ypc) is back along with the top two receiving targets back.
The defense was improved under new defensive coordinator Mark Stoops, allowing 19.6 ppg, 20th in the nation. A lot of talent returns, led by DB Xavier Rhodes and defensive end Brandon Jenkins, who led the team with 13.5 sacks. FSU carries a 9-3 run under the total into the new season.

13. Wisconsin: The Badgers (11-2 SU/7-5 ATS in 2010) are off a terrific season. They lose several key players, but the backfield is loaded with sophomore RB James White (1,052 yards, 670 yards per carry) and junior Montee Ball (996 yards, 6.1 ypc). All three of their top RBs last fall averaged at least 5.4 yards a carry! Throw in speedy 6-3 senior WR Nick Toon and there are plenty of weapons for the new QB.
Former North Carolina State quarterback Russell Wilson is headed to Wisconsin, who was terrific and has one year of eligibility remaining. The Badgers have a new defensive coordinator with Dan Doeren taking over the Northern Illinois head coaching job. The run defense was stout and returns tackles Jordan Kohout and Patrick Butrym. Wisconsin has been great at home, 44-5 SU, 25-18 ATS the last seven years, and gets Nebraska and Penn State at home.

12. TCU: Undervalued again! TCU is off a 13-0, 6-6 ATS season, making them 46-26 ATS the last six years. 5 offense and 6 defensive players return to team that had the top defense (11.4 ppg allowed) in the country and returns first-team All-American and Rose Bowl Defensive Most Valuable Player Tank Carder.
They lose senior QB Andy Dalton (26 TD, 6 INTs), so sophomore QB Casey Paschall (78 yards) steps in. Coach Gary Patterson likes balance on offense and the backfield is terrific with junior RBs Matthew Tucker (694) and Ed Wesley (1,065 yds, 6.6 ypc) to an offense that averaged 43.3 points, 230 yards passing and 261 rushing. They are 23-14-1 under the total the last four years with that bone-crushing defense, plus carry a 25-1 SU/19-5 ATS home record into the new season.

11. Stanford: The good news is star QB Andrew Luck returns. The downside is that so many other talents have moved on, including Coach Jim Harbaugh, off to the NFL. Stanford offensive coordinator David Shaw was promoted to head coach, so the same offensive style remains. Stanford (12-1 SU, 8-3-1 ATS in 2010) averaged 213.8 yards rushing, 258.7 passing behind junior QB Luck (32 TDs, 8 INTS, 3,338 yards) and was second in rushing with 453 yards, 8.2 yards per carry.
Three starters are gone from the offensive line, leaving first team All-Pac-10 T Jonathan Martin and first team All-Pac-10 G David DeCastro as the mainstays. They can play defense (17.4 ppg allowed), too, as in a 17-13 win at Arizona State with an edge in yards 420-268 as Luck threw for 292 yards. Stanford returns six defensive starters to a unit that finished ranked 10th in the nation in scoring defense. Stanford is on a 5-3 run over the total.

10. Oklahoma State: There’s plenty of good news in Stillwater as Oklahoma State (11-2 SU/10-3 ATS in 2010) has another powerhouse, no-huddle offense attack behind senior QB 27-year-old Brandon Weeden (34 TDs, 13 INTs, 4,277 yards) and star junior WR Justin Blackmon (1,782 yards, 20 TDs). They averaged 44.2 points and were second in the nation in passing with 345.8 yds per game, 174.4 yards rushing.
Defensive interior play is the biggest question mark for Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State was 8-5 over the total. The Cowboys will play six road games in 2011 and getting Texas and Missouri in back-to-back weeks in October will be their biggest early threat, but at least they get rival Oklahoma at home in the finale.

9. South Carolina: Last season the Gamecocks went 9-5 SU/7-6 ATS, knocked off No. 1 Alabama and lost just 35-27 at eventual champion Auburn. For 2011, Steve Spurrier could have some fun with this offense. Senior QB Stephen Garcia (20 TDs, 14 INTs, 3,059 yards) is joined by his top skill position players, a unit that averaged 30.9 points, 238.4 yards passing and 154.4 yards rushing.
They have balance on offense because of sophomore RB Marcus Lattimore, who ran for 1,197 yards, 4.8 ypc as a freshman. He was one of the nation’s top running back prospects coming out of High school. The passing game returns 6-foot-4 junior WR Alshon Jeffery (1,517 yards) and junior WR Tori Gurley (465), the top two targets. Six starters are back on defense, a unit that allowed 23.1 ppg. Spurrier is 15-15 SU, 19-11 ATS on the road at South Carolina.

8. Boise State: Boise State (12-1 SU/9-4 ATS in 2010) joins the Mountain West and after dominating the WAC for years, should have no trouble in their new conference. The Broncos have a super-talented team led by senior QB Kellen Moore (33 TDs, 6 INTs, 3,845 yards). The Broncos ranked second nationally averaging 46.7 points a game, 200 yards rushing and 319 passing.
Moore needs to work in new receivers but the offensive line will be strong behind senior offensive tackle Nate Potte. The defense is outstanding after allowing 12 ppg and returns senior defensive tackle Billy Winn. They have a battle with TCU, plus a rematch with Nevada in September, the only team to beat them last season, a 34-31 shocker, as the defense was gouged for 528 yards (269 rushing). Also, the opener won’t be easy: Georgia in the Superdome. Boise is on a 7-2-1 run under the total. Since 1999, Boise is 78-2 SU, 46-22 ATS at home on the blue carpet!

7. Notre Dame: 2010 was supposed to be a rebuilding year under new coach brian Kelly and despite a ton of injuries the Irish impressed with an 8-5 SU/7-5-1 ATS campaign. Kelly added an uptempo attack (25.8 ppg, 257 yds passing) to South Bend and they get back 6-4 junior QB Dayne Crist (15 TDs, 7 INTs), who was lost halfway through the season (knee). Junior RB Cierre Wood (603 yards) is back after averaging 5.1 yards per carry. The defense, always a problem under Charlie Weis, made great improvements, allowing 20.2 ppg. The entire defensive front returns along with linebacker Manti Te’o, though the secondary is short on playmakers. The schedule isn’t as tough and they get USC and BC at home.

6. LSU: The only problem for the Tigers the last two years has been the passing attack. QBs Jordan Jefferson (7 TDs, 10 INTs) and senior Jarrett Lee (2 TDs, 1 INT) are back, but Coach Les Miles has 6-foot-5, 250-pound QB Zach Mettenberger, a four-star JUCO transfer, a pro-style quarterback. He started his career at Georgia of the SEC before transferring.
He may be the missing piece, with eight starters returning on offense, including the entire offensive line. The defense (18.2 ppg allowed) has many talented pieces back, with talented sophomore CB Tyrann Matheiu. With almost everyone back from an 11-2 sqaud, the Tigers will be very good. Perhaps the biggest concern: A Week 1 showdown against Oregon in Arlington, Texas.

5. Nebraska: Welcome to the Big 10! Bo Pelini had a dominant defense last fall, 17.4 ppg (9th in the nation) during a 10-4 SU, 6-7 ATS campaign. The offense was improved, averaging 30.9 points, 247.6 yards rushing and 150.6 passing and for 2011, they return sophomore QB Taylor Martinez (10 TDs, 7 INTs), who ran for 965 yards. New offensive coordinator Tim Beck has tweaked the terminology and trimmed down the playbook. He wants his wide receivers to have more flexibility in their routes so they and the QBs can react to various defensive coverages. The schedule is very favorable, with a rematch with Washington (at home, September 17), plus they get Ohio State at home. Nebraska is 10-5 SU/ATS on the road under Pelini.

4. Alabama: It’s still hard to believe defending champion Alabama (10-3 SU/7-5 ATS) finished fourth in the SEC West last season, despite being No. 1 to start the year loaded with talent. This was still a dominant team, No. 3 in the nation in points allowed (13.5 ppg) and a powerful, balanced offense. The 2011 team will lean on junior RB Trent Richardson (700 yds, 6.3 ypc), along with sophomore RB Eddie Lacy (406 yards, 7.3 ypc). The line adds 6-7, freshman OT Cyrus Kouandjio, one of the top offensive tackle recruits.
The big story is behind center, with sophomore QBs A.J. McCarron (389 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) and Phillip Sims battling it out. The good news is there is talent in the passing game with senior WR Darius Hanks (456 yards) and senior WR Marquis Maze (557 yards), dangerous receivers and veterans. Alabama’s defense was fifth in total yards and loaded for 2011. Senior LB Dont’a Hightower returns for his fourth season and senior DB Mark Barron anchors a strong secondary. Alabama’s defense has gone 45 consecutive games without allowing an opposing running back to gain 100 or more yards rushing and is riding a 7-4-1 under the total.

3. Oregon: Oregon is no ordinary offense under Chip Kelly, spreading the field, running the no-huddle and burning up defenses. Last season Oregon was No. 1 in the nation in points (47 ppg), with 244.5 yards passing and 286.2 yards rushing per contest. Things look bright for 2011 behind junior QB Darron Thomas (30 TDs, 9 INTs, 2,881 yards) and junior RB LaMichael James (1,731 yards, 5.9 ypc).
Keep an eye on speedy sophomore RB Lache Seastrunk, one of the nation’s top recruits a year ago. The Ducks were actually very good defensively, 12th in scoring defense (18.7 points per game) and return defensive backs Cliff Harris and senior John Boyett. The Ducks were a plus-13 in turnover margin, seventh nationally, and had 35 regular season takeaways. Oregon is on a 13-5 run over the total and should be the team to beat in the New Pac 12.

2. Oklahoma: Hopes are high for the Sooners, with a boatload of talent back, off a 12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS season, with a Big 12 championship and a Fiesta Bowl blowout of UConn, 48-20. The offense will be fine passing the football with junior QB Landry Jones (38 TDs, 12 INTs, 4,718 yds, 65.5% completions) and senior WR Ryan Broyles (1,622 yds), averaging 37.2 ppg, 138 yards rushing and 343.4 passing. That passing attack was third in the country.
The offense loses only RB DeMarco Murray and RT Eric Mensik, so second year offensive coordinator Josh Heupel has plenty of weapons to work. The ground game has sophomore running back Roy Finch (398 yards, 4.7 ypc), who was the No. 2 back before getting injured. They have been boosted by one of the best recruiting classes in the nation for the second straight year, so this offense should be balanced and explosive. The Sooner defense has given up at least 20 points in 8 of their 13 games and 11-6 in their last 16 games away from home (counting bowls). Oklahoma is 33-4 SU, 16-13 ATS at home the last five seasons.

1. Florida Gators: Coach Urban Meyer stepped down for health reasons, so for 2011 Will Muschamp is the new coach. Muschamp spent the past three seasons as defensive coordinator at Texas. Muschamp has a defensive background and he brings in offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, who adds a pro-style attack. That is better suited to junior QB John Brantley, plus star recruit freshman QB Jeff Driskel (a Florida native) is in the wings.
8 starters are back on offense, 5 on defense. The ground game has senior RB Jeff Demps (521 yards, 6.0 ypc), a super-talent who had a foot injury last season, while senior WR Deonte Thompson led the Gators with 570 receiving yards, an impressive 15 yards per catch. The defense struggled to get into the backfield, but look for Muschamp to unleash the hounds with all this talent. Florida is 38-6 SU, 23-17 ATS at home in the Swamp the last six years. The schedule is relatively easy, with the only difficult road games Oct. 8 at LSU and Oct. 15 at Auburn, back to back games. And the revenge game with South Carolina is on the road, September 12, a 36-14 loss last season.

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by Jim Feist

It’s time to kick off a new football season. College football begins Thursday, September 1st and here’s a look at the top teams, starting with my top 21-40.

40. Oregon State: The Beavers failed to make a bowl because of injuries and the offense went south. For 2011 they return senior QB Ryan Katz (17 TDs, 11 picks) and WR James Rodgers was granted a sixth-year of eligibility, off a knee injury. The No. 1 tailback spot is key, with Ryan McCants or Jordan Jenkins stepping in. Mike Riley may be more concerned about his defense than he is the tailback position because the Beavers lost three of four starters up front, including Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year Stephen Paea. The schedule is tough, with six road games, including the opener at Wisconsin. They bring a 6-0 under the total run into the new season.

39. BYU: The Cougars started off last season with no offense, then got hot down the stretch, finishing on a 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS run. For 2011 they return senior QB Riley Nelson and sophomore QB Jake Heaps, plus a big offensive line returns 4 starters to a unit that averaged 168 yards rushing. Brandon Doman has been promoted to offensive coordinator and wants to have an explosive attack. This offense scored 55, 49, 40, 16 and 52 points the last five games. The defense gave up 21.6 ppg (32nd in the nation) and looks solid. The only concern is the schedule, opening at Ole Miss, at Texas and home against Utah.

38. South Florida: The Bulls (8-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) started slow but made it to their sixth straight bowl, the first under Coach Skip Holtz. They went 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS to end the season after the coaching staff made some changes on offense behind mobile junior QB B.J. Daniels. The offense averaged 24.1 points, 144.8 yards rushing and 164 passing, while the defense allowed 20 ppg (22nd in the nation). Junior RB Demetris Murray (533 yards) is back and they bring in transfers RB Darrell Scott (from Colorado) and RB Dontae Aycock (from Auburn). The defense should be strong again, such as in the Miami win when they forced 3 turnovers. South Florida is on an 8-3 run under the total and they open at Notre Dame, plus 27-10 SU, 18-13 ATS at home.

37. Penn State: Joe Paterno is still here, off a 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS season. The offense was erratic because of injuries and young QBs, but return junior Matt McGloin (14 TDs, 9 INTs, 1,548 yards). The key is senior RB Stephfon Green, who has game breaking speed, but hasn’t put it all together since his sophomore season. There are only three road games in the first 10 going to Temple, Indiana, and Northwestern, but they host Alabama in Week 2, plus Nebraska November 12. Penn State is 2-11 SU/ATS its last 13 as a dog and 15-10 SU, 13-10-1 ATS its last 25 on the road. Of course, at home the Lions are 39-6 SU, 22-17 ATS!

36. Navy: The Midshipmen are off a9-4 SU, 7-5 ATS campaign as the ground game was sixth nationally with 284.8 yards per game, while the defense was undersized but gave up 22 ppg. Plenty of talent returns. They have to replace option QB Ricky Dobbs, but senior QB Kriss Proctor saw action, rushing for 304 yards, a whopping 9.5 yards per carry! Navy is 55-38-1 against the spread the last eight seasons.

35. Illinois: The Illini (7-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) surprised last season under Ron Zook. This offense was mostly running, averaging 32.5 points, 151 yards passing and 246.1 yards rushing and returns sophomore QB Nathan Scheelhaase (17 TDs, 8 INTS, 1,825 yards), who rushed for 868 yards. Illinois led the Big Ten in rushing (246.1 ypg) for the third time in the last five years. The defense gets three starters back in the secondary, but with Corey Liuget leaving early for the NFL and the loss of end Clay Nurse, the defensive front needs work. Zook is 9-7 SU/6-10 ATS his last 16 games as a home favorite.

34. Auburn: The Tigers (14-0 SU/10-3 ATS) are off a remarkable season for Coach Gene Chizik and brilliant offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. They won the national title averaging 41.2 ppg. So many key players are off to the NFL, but they will build around junior QB Barrett Trotter and junior WR Emory Blake (554 yards). The ground game averaged 284.8 yards, No. 5 in the country, with the help of 5-9 sophomore RB Michael Dyer (1,093 yds, 6.0 ypc) and junior RB Onterio McCalebb (810, 8.5 ypc).
Right tackle Brandon Mosley is the only returning starter on the O-line, but freshman OG Christian Westerman is a top prospect. The linebacking corps needs two new starters and the defensive tackles have to be replaced. Auburn is 20-10 SU, 17-13 ATS the last seven years on the road, but surviving October without a loss is unlikely and the rematch with angry Alabama will be a challenge.

33. Pitt: Todd Graham is Pitt’s new football coach, running a version of the spread offense he ran at Tulsa. He has a lot of talent to work with in junior QB Tino Sunseri (16 TDs, 9 INTs), junior RB Ray Graham (922 yards rushing, 6.2 yards per carry) and 6-foot-5 junior WR Mike Shanahan (589 yards). While the offense looks balanced and potentially potent, the defense lost its top players. The only major concern is the schedule, playing at Iowa and home against Notre Dame back to back in September.

32. Clemson: The Tigers could have a new look offensively: Coach Dabo Swinney hired Tulsa’s Chad Morris as offensive coordinator. Morris had spent last year running Tulsa’s attack, leading the Golden Hurricanes to 41.4 points a game. Sophomore QB Tajh Boyd (4 TDs, 3 INTs, 329 yards) saw some time and started the bowl game, a 31-26 loss to South Florida, plus they return junior RB Andre Ellington (686 yards, 5.8 ypc). The defense was very strong, allowing 18.8 points per game, 13th best in the country. The Tigers carry a 15-2 run under the total into the new season.

31. Baylor: The good news is that junior QB Robert Griffin III (22 TDs, 8 INTs, 3,501 yards) returns. He is a dynamic player and was second on the team in rushing with 635 yards. Throw in senior RB Terrance Ganaway (295 yards, 6.4 yards per carry) and senior WR Kendall Wright (952 yards) and this offense is loaded. 8 starters return on offense on a group that averaged 31.2 points, 280.7 yards passing, 194.6 rushing per game. The defense was terrible, which is why new defensive coordinator Phil Bennett comes aboard, along with three decent JUCO transfers for the secondary. Baylor is 6-42 SU, 17-30-1 ATS its last 48 as a dog.

30. Michigan: Michigan (7-6 SU/3-9 ATS) made a bowl last season, but it was an embarrassing season as the Wolverines played no defense while losing 6 of their final 8 games. They have a new style with head coach Brady Hoke and offensive coordinator Al Borges, plus ten starters return on offense. He is a proponent of a wide-open pro-style/West Coast offense. The offense was No. 13 in the nation with 250 yards rushing per game and 35.2 points and returns junior QB Denard Robinson (18 TDs, 12 INTs, 2,570 yards). Defensively, Michigan is moving to a four-man front from the 3-3-5 under defensive coordinator Greg Mattison, who comes over from the Baltimore Ravens. Michigan is also 12-12 SU/10-14 ATS its last 24 road games.

29. Arkansas: Bobby Petrino lost senior QB Ryan Mallett (32 TDs, 12 INTs) on an offense that was fourth in the nation in passing (333.7 yds per game) and 36.5 points per contest, but junior Tyler Wilson (453 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs) steps in. He replaced Mallett at Auburn in October and threw for 332 yards and four touchdowns against the eventual national champ. He has experienced targets to throw to in senior WR Joe Adams (813 yards), 6-3 senior WR Jarius Wright (788), their top two receivers. Junior RB Knile Davis impressed with 1,322 yards, 6.5 yards per carry. The defensive front was got into the backfield on a regular basis and finished 9th in the nation in sacks. Arkansas is on a 6-2 run over the total.

28. Mississippi State: The Bulldogs (9-4 SU/7-5 ATS) impressed, averaging 29 points and 214.8 yards rushing, making a bowl (smacking Michigan, 52-14). Throw in wins over Florida and Georgia and Dan Mullen has this program overachieving. They rotated two quarterbacks and return senior QB Chris Relf (13 TDs, 6 INTs, 713 yards rushing) and sophomore QB Tyler Russell (5 TDs 6 INTs), rarely throwing the football. The ground game was No. 16 in the nation and returns senior RB Vick Ballard (968 yards). The real surprise was the defense (19.8 ppg), though their linebacking corps lost its top players, plus their defensive coordinator went to Texas.

27. West Virginia: Strange doings in the offseason for the Mountaineers, with Bill Stewart stepping down and newcomer offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen becoming the head coach a year earlier than planned. The new coach has a speedy team (9-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) that returns a lot of its key players, led by junior QB Geno Smith (24 TDs, 7 picks, 2,763 yards). The offensive line looks solid again, led by senior Center Eric Jobe, averaging 162 yards rushing, but don’t expect a run-first attack again.
That’s because Holgorsen learned the wide-open passing attack at Texas Tech under Mike Leach and brings that to Morgantown. The passing game has 5-foot-9 junior playmaking WR Tavon Austin, who caught 58 passes for 787 yards. The defense has been very strong, allowing 13.5 ppg, third in the nation, but lost 7 starters. West Virginia is on a 12-5 run under the total, but will that continue with their new-look passing offense?

26. Tennessee: The Vols (6-7) had a rough start to the season for new Coach Derek Dooley, but the offense got on a roll. Sophomore QB Tyler Bray (18 TDs, 10 INTs, 1,849 yards) is back along with senior RB Tauren Poole (1,034 yards, 5.1 ypc). Last season they averaged 27 points, 109 yards rushing, 254.5 yards passing, ranking 30th in the nation in passing, but 105th in rushing. The defense (25.1 ppg) was great down the stretch and the secondary has talent, led by star safety Janzen Jackson. The Vols are 19-17 SU/21-14-1 ATS on the road the last seven seasons and on a 9-3 run over the total.

25. Houston: Quarterback U! Houston is a powerhouse offensive team under fourth-year head coach Kevin Sumlin, off a 5-7 SU, 3-7-1 ATS season of bad luck, losing 2 QBs. For 2011, they return senior QB Case Keenum (5 TDs, 5 INTs), backup Cotton Turner and sophomore QB David Piland (24 TDs, 14 INTs), who was forced in as a freshman. Even with all the injuries this offense averaged 37.7 points and 327.3 yards passing, the fifth best air attack in the country. The offense is loaded behind senior running back Bryce Beall and senior wide receiver Patrick Edwards. The defense, though, is another story, (32.2 ppg allowed) and the secondary lacks experience. Houston is 26-8 SU, 18-11-1 ATS at home.

24. Miami: The Canes (7-6 SU, 4-8 ATS) fell apart down the stretch, despite making a bowl, with the firing Randy Shannon, so new Coach Al Golden (Temple) comes aboard along with new offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch. The Hurricanes ran a pro-style attack last season, but they will look to run the football more to cut down on turnovers. They have two QBs in senior QB Jacory Harris (14 TDs, 15 INTs) and sophomore QB Stephen Morris (7 TDs, 9 INTs). The defense was very good, allowing 19.7 ppg (21st in the nation) and they add All-American defensive end Anthony Chickillo, a top recruit. Miami is on an 8-2-1 run under the total.

23: Texas A&M: Head Coach Mike Sherman is a fan of a balanced offense, averaging 31.2 points, 276.8 yards passing and 165 rushing. Texas A&M went 9-4 SU, 7-5 ATS campaign, off of a share of the Big 12 South Division title and a Cotton Bowl appearance. 10 starters are back on offense, 8 on the defense. The offense returns junior QB Ryan Tannehill (13 TDs, 6 INTs) along with senior RB Cyrus Gray (1,133 yards, 5.7 ypc). The defense (21.9 ppg allowed) loses All-American Von Miller to the NFL, but there are talented JUCO transfers. A&M carries a 6-1 SU/ATS run into the new season.

22: Texas: The Longhorns (5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS) were awful in 2010, a shocking season. Junior QB Garrett Gilbert (10 TDs, 17 INTs) was a turnover machine, so some new spring formations have been put in for better play-action passing for him. Two starters are back in the backfield, while the defense led the Big 12 and was sixth in the nation in yardage allowed. The defense has a new coordinator in Manny Diaz and a strong LB corps, led by sophomore LB Demarco Cobbs, while 6-foot-5 senior DT Kheeston Randall anchors a solid line. Texas is 63-15 SU, 43-33-1 ATS the last six seasons and 8-5 SU/9-4 ATS its last 13 as a dog.

21. Virginia Tech: The Hokies (11-3 SU, 10-3 ATS) are off another terrific season for Coach Frank Beamer. The job of running the offense will lie in the huge hands of Logan Thomas, whose 6-foot-6, 242-pound frame is loaded with talent. Beamer likes balance on offense and the backfield has speedy junior Tailback David Wilson and was the third leading rusher with 619 yards, 5.5 yards per carry. A young Tech defense, playing seven new starters, gave up some big plays, but allowed just 19.1 points per game (16th in the nation). V-Tech is a stellar 15-6 SU/14-6-1 ATS on the road the last four years.