The Patriots (15-3 SU, 9-8-1 ATS) offense is also explosive behind QB Tom Brady (45 TDs, 15 INTs), No. 2 in the NFL in yards and passing yards, along with Deion Branch, slot WR Wes Welker (1,569 yards) and star TE Rob Gronkowski (1,327 yards) and Aaron Hernandez.

As in 2007, this is actually the third time these teams face off this season if you count preseason. The Giants won 18-17 as a 8 points road dog in preseason and they were also the last team to beat the Patriots with a 24-20 upset as a +9 dog at New England before the Pats began their current 10-game win streak. New England had a 438-361 yardage edge as Welker and Rob Gronkowski combined for 237 yards receiving.

New England used the tight ends to block in the first half, or max protection, but the halftime score was 0-0. They opened things up more in the second half and 44 points ended up being scored, all after halftime. Manning is actually the hotter quarterback right now with an 11-1 TD to interception ratio in the last four games, while QB Tom Brady had no TDs and 2 picks in the AFC Championship game.

Both coaches are from the Bill Parcells tree and spent the 1988-1990
seasons with the Giants. Tom Coughlin was the WRs coach and Bill Belichick was the defensive coordinator. The Giants are on a 5-0 Su/ATS run while the Pats have won 10 in a row facing much lighter competition. As always, it will come down to execution on the field — the most difficult thing of all, along with turnovers, to handicapp.

Why? The basic strategy in WR and RB prop bets is to look under the total, as most recreational bettors prefer to bet over and the linemaker adjusts accordingly. However when playing prop bets, it’s important to look at the match-ups for the current game and not just season long stats, and then project the type of game to be played along with the strengths and weaknesses of both teams.
I’ve determined that the Super Bowl is going to be a high-scoring shootout between the Patriots and Giants. The oddsmaker is projecting big passing games from both QB’s Tom Brady and Eli Manning, as each has over/under passing yards of at least 310 yards.

The Patriots secondary is suspect, and overall New England ranked #31 in pass defense this season, allowing 294 ypg and an AFC-worst 8.0 yards per pass attempt. I realize that the Patriots yards-per-point was among the league’s best (19.0), as their bend but don’t break strategy while often playing with the lead skewed some of their defensive passing stats.

But the Patriots played against very few top-level or efficient QBs this season, and even Joe Flacco passed for over 300 yards in sub-par weather conditions in the AFC Championship game against the Patriots. Now in perfect conditions on a fast track at Lucas Oil Stadium, Eli Manning should have a big game passing and expect Victor Cruz to be a major target in the aerial attack. With the Giants top talented receiver Hakeem Nicks getting more attention and double coverage, Cruz should be the benefactor with single coverage often against sub-par secondary personnel for the Patriots.

Cruz had 10 receptions in the NFC Championship game and at least 6 receptions in 11 games this season. Over the second half of the season and through the playoffs, Cruz had more passes thrown to him (125) than any other receiver in football. The speedy receiver became Manning’s favorite target and led the team in receptions. Weather playing from behind or with a lead, the Giants are sure to attack the Patriots weakness through the passing game, and we expect Victor Cruz to have the ball thrown his way quite often.

Still, on a fast indoor track at Lucas Oil Stadium and two quarterbacks that can pass with great precision and likely play quite a bit out of no huddle offense and spread receiver sets, this sets up to be a high-scoring and entertaining game.

Recall that in this year’s regular season meeting, the Giants beat the Patriots 24-20 in Foxboro. Remarkably, the game was scoreless at halftime. Note too that RB Ahmad Bradshaw did not play that contest, nor did WR Hakeem Nicks, fullback Henry Hynosky or center David Bass; all who are expected to play in the Super Bowl. Eli Manning passed 39 times for 250 net yards and was not sacked while Tom Brady passed 49 times for 332 net yards and was sacked two times in the November 11th contest. The passing game was and is each teams preferred style and strength, and when you consider New England ranked #31 in the NFL allowing 294 passing yards per game and a AFC-worst 8.0 yards per pass attempt, it only seems likely that Eli and the Giants offense will utilize their talent and speed at the receiver position to keep passing against the poor Patriots defense.

The Giants also played the toughest second-half schedule in football while the Patriots feasted on weaker teams and faced many sub-par quarterbacks throughout the season. Even Ravens QB Joe Flacco past for over 300 yards against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game in less that quality conditions outdoors in Foxboro in late January.

The Patriots had the league’s fourth best red zone offense while the Giants ranked #9. Both teams ranked in the bottom half of red zone defense. Both these quarterbacks are so skilled, polished, poised and precise in their passing and play that they make their receivers look like All-Pro’s. Okay, some of them are, but without these top two passers and signal callers, Wes Welker and Victor Cruz among others would not have nearly as many receptions, yards or opportunities.

So in the final game of the season with the world watching, look for two top quarterbacks to put on a aerial show and pile up plenty of yards and scoring opportunities; sending the game over the posted total.

SE Missouri State (SEMO) leads the league in shooting at 51% while Murray State hits 48% of their shots in league play. The Racers allow just 40% shooting while the Redhawks are right behind allowing 41% shooting. SEMO also leads the league in rebounding margin (+6.4), assists per game (17) and assist-to-turnover ratio. Murray State leads the league in scoring offense (76), scoring defense (61) and is the league’s best team in turnover margin. The Racers also play the best perimeter defense allowing just 30% shooting beyond the arch thanks to two guards that are the league’s best perimeter defenders, Isaiah Canaan and Donte Poole. SEMO commits the fewest turnovers, so the match-ups in the backcourt will be one to watch.

At this time of the season, many top teams are a bit overvalued in the betting market, especially at home. Murray State is a quality team and clearly the best in the Ohio Valley Conference, but to spot the league’s current second place team 16-points seems a bit much. No doubt SEMO was not expected to finish too strong in the conference this season, but their stats support their current position. SEMO was blown out by Murray State 96-58 on this court last season, but the Redhawks also beat Murray State 64-57 as a 11-point home underdog. Expect Murray State to remain unbeaten but continue to get conference opponent’s best shot; making SEMO worthy of wagering support.

No doubt Southern Miss is a focused favorite tonight (-2.5), as they suffered a narrow 60-58 loss at Memphis January 11th and have now lost 17-straight games to the Memphis Tigers. Included are three losses to Memphis last season by 1, 3 and 6 points. But the Golden Eagles have won 15 of their last 16 games and enter with great confidence and looking for major redemption. “We’re definitely talking revenge,” sophomore USM point guard Neil Watson said. “Individually, I want to beat them,” senior guard Angelo Johnson said. “I haven’t beat them yet. I hate losing to them. I’ve got to accomplish something before I leave.”

As part of ‘Blackout’ night, many fans will be wearing black and the atmosphere and defensive intensity should be strong. In league play, Memphis is allowing just 58 ppg while So. Miss is also solid at 63 ppg. The Tigers defense is the best in the league, allowing just 38% FG shooting. The teams are 1-2 in scoring offense at 71 and 69 ppg. Rebounding is solid for both teams, but Memphis does hold an edge in rebounding margin. However, Southern Mississippi commits the fewest turnovers in the league.

In a meaningful conference game with a focused home team, Southern Miss will give their best effort of the season. Note that 16 of So. Miss’ last 25 home games have gone under the total and this looks like another defensive dandy.

New York is no better, also on a 1-9 slide and just 2-8 ATS. The rumblings for coach Mike D’Antonio’s firing are loud in the Big Apple. So too are the boos, as the fans have seen enough poor play, and with the Bulls coming to town Thursday, expect the Knicks to give their best against the poor Pistons.

Following back-to-back losses last weekend at Miami and Houston to conclude a 4-game road trip, the Knicks get the right opponent Tuesday to run the floor, their offense and please the frustrated New York fans. Detroit enters off a 103-82 loss at Milwaukee Monday night in a game that saw them shoot poorly (38% and 1-of-9 from the arch) but also attempt 83 shots.

The Knicks played their last two games without forward Carmelo Anthony (wrist), and coach D’Antonio announced Monday that Anthony is doubtful against Detroit. Anthony is among the league leaders in isolation plays, so without him in the lineup, coach D’Antonio sent his players to run the floor. While the Knicks shot less than 39% against the Heat and Rockets, note that they took 84 and 89 shots including 18-for-43 from the arch against Miami and 5-for-26 against Houston.

The Knicks rank #24 in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring 95.4 points per 100 possessions. Anthony has struggled with his shooting, going 40-for-126 his last six games while playing through a wrist injury. Amare Stoudemire is down to 17 ppg and and 43% shooting after averaging 25 ppg and 50% FG last season. The Knicks offense is most effective when there is continuous ball movement to get players an open shot. The trade for Anthony last season robbed the Knicks of some of their players and pieces that fit D’Antonio’s system. New York is just 21-31 since Carmelo Anthony arrived to play for the Knicks.

The Knicks had one of their better games of the season when they beat the Pistons in Detroit 103-80 on January 7th. The teams combined for 54 shots from the 3-point arch, and expect plenty more Tuesday with more scoring than projected by the linemaker.

Fresno State is playing their third straight road game and coming off a tough travel spot with a quick turnaround following a draining, emotional 59-58 loss at Louisiana Tech Thursday. Much energy and effort was needed for them to rally late, only to fall short on a last second basket by La. Tech. Now they take on an angry New Mexico State team off their own disappointing home loss Thursday vs. league leader Nevada.

But the Aggies have some big edges in this contest in the match-ups and stat profiles to go along with the poor situation against Fresno State. New Mexico State plays at a very fast pace, one of the top-10 adjusted tempo ratings in the country while Fresno State is a slow, methodical team with poor shooters and rank #289 in the nation in effective field goal defense. New Mexico State leads the WAC in rebounding margin at nearly +8 per game while Fresno State is dead last in the league at -5 rebounds per game.

The Aggies take few 3-point shots, so we don’t have to be concerned with long-range shots or inconsistency from the perimeter against a weak opponent. Rather, the Aggies use their strength on the interior. The Aggies defense is far better allowing 42% shooting while Fresno State allows 48% in WAC play. New Mexico State leads the league in scoring, averaging over 78 ppg while Fresno State is last in the league at 63 ppg.

Fresno State’s top forward averages 8 ppg and 5 rpg, and they do not have an answer for Aggies senior forward Wendall McKines inside, as he’s no. 2 in the league in scoring (19) and no. 3 in rebounding (10) per game. Combined with 6-11 senior center Hamidu Rahman, the Aggies pose all sorts of match-up problems for the Bulldogs down low. Along with senior point guard Hernst Laroche, off a season high 21-points vs. Nevada, the Aggies have a solid inside/outside combo to break down the Bulldogs and pull away for a solid win.

Phoenix has lost 2-straight games including a 99-96 home loss to Toronto Tuesday. Lopez bumped an official that game and is suspended for tonight’s contest. The Suns are just 3-6 on the road, as aging veterans Steve Nash (38) and Grant Hill (39) try to keep the Suns competitive despite significantly less scoring this season (92 ppg; down from 105 last season). Nash still leads the NBA in assists, and could become the all-time leader in free throw percentage (90.5%) if he makes his next seven attempts.

Meanwhile, Portland is 8-1 at home and have a big front court edge with Gerald Wallace and LaMarcus Aldridge patrolling the paint and center Marcus Camby still grabbing nearly 10 rebounds per game at age 38, including 22 boards last home game in a win over Memphis. Wallace leads the NBA in field goal percentage at home (63.8%).  Reserve forward Craig Smith has also been solid recently averaging nearly 10 ppg and 5+ rebounds per game his last four contests while averaging 16 minutes per game. Add in solid scoring in the back court from Jamaal Crawford and Wesley Matthews and the ‘Blazers should extend the margin with a balanced and deep attack.

NBA Western Conference Phoenix is one of the bottom five rebounding teams in the NBA, and with a solid advantage in the front court combined with much expected motivation, look for Portland to get their redemption and hold nothing back in sending the Suns back to Phoenix with a double-digit loss.

The NY Knicks (7-11 SU, 4-14 ATS, 13-5 under the total) have been money burners. The offense was supposed to be uptempo, but the defense is allowing 95.3 ppg (19th) while the offense has slipped to 94.5 ppg (15h). That’s why they’ve been a great under team – 10-2 run under.

The Knicks frontcourt has 27-year old 6-9 Carmelo Anthony (25.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and 6-9 Amare Stoudemire (17.6 ppg, 8 rpg). Newcomer 7-foot Tyson Chandler (10 ppg, 9.7 rpg) came over from the champion Mavericks and is a defensive force. This is a tough week for New York, playing its third road game of a 4-game trip here. They are on a 1-7 SU/ATS run. The Knicks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 against the Eastern Conference. In Tuesday’s 111-78 win at 3-15 Charlotte ending their 6-game skid, Tyson Chandler had 20 points and 17 rebounds. Anthony had just 1 point (0-for-7). They had 14 dunks against the defenseless Bobcats.

“We are having guys that aren’t being aggressive and not looking,” D’Antoni said. “We don’t have a lot of confidence out there so (Carmelo) is attacking and he should do that.”

The Miami Heat (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS) is in a tough race for first place with Atlanta and Orlando. After running a slow, defensive style last year, Miami is more uptempo, averaging 104.4 ppg (second in the NBA) and allowing 97 ppg (23rd). Miami has 6-8, 27-year old LeBron James (29.7 ppg, 8.3 rpg), 6-11, 27-year old Chris Bosh (20 ppg, 8 rpg), 30-year old 6-4 Dwyane Wade (19.6 ppg). Wade is day to day (ankle) and has missed 7 straight games. Mike Miller (7.5 ppg) is back this week and adds a 3-point threat.

Miami played its worst game of the season, losing to the Milwaukee Bucks 91-82. Chris Bosh called it a “stinker,” Shane Battier went with “clunker” and LeBron James said the Heat simply “had no energy.” The Bucks shot 35 percent from the field — 5 of 30 from three-point range — and had 15 turnovers but still won by nine points. The Heat had 22 turnovers and shot 37.3 percent. Miami beat Cleveland at home Tuesday, 92-85, allowing 37 first half points.

This is the 6th home game for Miami over the last 7 games. Heat is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. The over is 12-4-1 in Heat last 17 home games.

Wisconsin has one of the strongest home court advantages in the country at the Kohl Center. Yet they opened Big Ten play with a surprising home loss to Iowa as a 17-point favorite. Two weeks ago, the Badgers were a team in turmoil with three-straight losses in conference play, including back-to-back home losses to Iowa and Michigan State.

Senior point guard Jordan Taylor has guided a younger team to the recent turnaround and four-straight wins with a 16-3 assist-to-turnover ratio while averaging over 16 ppg the last four contests.

A look at the stats shows the Badgers relying more heavily on the 3-point shot this season, while hitting a sub-par 33% from the arch in league play. Indiana counters with 43% shooting from long range and both these teams rank top-2 in the league in 3-pointers made at over seven per game. The Badgers are seemingly a stronger defensive team, however, Wisconsin is one of the slowest paced teams in the country; ranking no. 337 in adjusted tempo.

Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are one of the most efficient offenses in the country, ranking top-5 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage. The Hoosiers snapped their own three-game losing streak with a big win over Penn State last game, and Indiana has some advantages inside with freshman 7-footer Cody Zeller patrolling the paint with 6-9 junior Christian Watford. Those two lead the Hoosiers in scoring and rebounding, while senior swingman Verdell Jones give them versatility and consistency.

Junior guard Jordan Hulls is a defensive liability, but he’s a sharp shooter, hitting over 49% of his shots both inside and outside the arch. The Hoosiers ability to attack inside out will determine their chances to upset the Badgers. While Indiana looks plenty capable of matching up in this contest, there is a lack of leadership that is a concern after blowing leads against Michigan State and Nebraska in defeat.

Five of Indiana’s last six road games have gone over the total. This total is lined at 126 points, and note that not a single Indiana game has finished below 127 points this season. So despite Wisconsin’s slow pace and preference to play in the half court, the Badgers may enjoy taking on a softer and less physical foe overall.

Wisconsin is 5-3 over/under in league games this season, although tonight’s contest is the highest posted total in a Badgers conference ballgame this season. Still, four of the last five games in this series have gone over the total, and this one has a solid shot to hit 130 or more points with both teams relying on more 3-point shots.