Example from Super Bowl 43:
02/07/09 05:00 PM NFL (255) ARIZ. CARDINALS (256) PITT STEELERS
TAKE (255) ARIZONA CARDINALS
Super Bowl 43
from Raymond James Stadium (outdoors), Tampa Bay, Florida
REASON: The Cardinals (12-7 SU, 11-8 ATS) carry a 4-0 SU/ATS run into their first Super Bowl, despite opening as an underdog in all 3 playoff games. Coach Ken Whisenhunt came from the Steelers where he was a proponent of their balanced offense, but he’s had to adjust to the strengths of this team, all passing. Intrestingly, he faces the team he helped win the Super Bowl four years ago. The one-dimensional offense is No. 4 overall (292 yards passing, 2nd) behind 37-year old QB Kurt Warner (30 TDs, 14 INTs, 4,583 yds). He has great targets with WR Larry Fitzgerald (1,431 yds, 12 TDs), All-Pro wideout Anquan Boldin (1,038, 11 TDs) and WR Steve Breaston (1,006 yds). Fitzgerald has been a beast in this postseason: He had 166 yards receiving in the 33-13 rout of Carolina, then 152 yards, 3 TDs in the NFC Championship game, a 32-25 win over the Eagles. The defense ranked just 19th during the regular season, but has been improved in the playoffs. The Cardinals faced two of the top three running teams in the NFL in the playoffs and shut both of them down. Atlanta had 60 against Arizona. Carolina, third in the NFL with a 152.3 average, gained 75 yards. There’s no doubtPittsburgh will test them again by trying to run the football with Willie Parker. TheArizona pass defense is ranked 22nd and got shredded by Philly, allowing 454 total yards, 357 passing from Donovan McNabb. The great passing offense/average defense is why Arizona is on a 12-4 run over the total. Much of the success of theArizona defense in stopping the run lately has been the direct result of the play from the defensive line. Darnell Dockett, DE Bertrand Berry, DE Antonio Smith and nose tackle Bryan Robinson have taken turns at drawing double-team blocks. That has opened up gaps for the linebackers to zero in on the ball carrier. Turnovers have been a problem at times, and could be in this game against attacking Pittsburgh D. The Cardinals are 3-5 SU/4-4 ATS their last 8 games away from home. Arizona had some truly awful games on the road and seemed disinterested, but they won’t be lazy in the biggest game of their lives. The Steelers (14-4 SU, 11-7 ATS) have a ferocious defense ranked No. 1 overall. The offense ranks 22nd, but has the potential for good balance with excellent skill position talent. QB Ben Roethlisberger (17 TDs, 15 picks, 3,301 yds) has excellent targets with WR Santana Holmes (821 yds), Hines Ward (1,043 yds) and TE Heath Miller (514). RB Willie Parker (791 yards) is healthy now. He got shut down by Baltimore Sunday, but that was expected against that defensive front. Prior to that Parker ran for 146 yards in a 35-24 win over San Diego. They are also hot, on an 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS run. During the regular season, the Steelers played a much tougher schedule – and played well. Pittsburgh lost three close games to the Eagles, Colts and defending champion Giants. Their only one-sided loss was at Tennessee, 31-14 (All of those were playoff teams). The Steelers also won easily at Washington (23-6) and New England (33-10) and swept the Ravens three times. Arizona had a string of ugly losses on the road and gave up 37 points in a home loss to the Giants. These offenses are averaging 31 ppg (Arizona) and 29 ppg (Steelers) in the postseason. Since four straight Super Bowls have gone under the total, we’ll call for that streak to end with a high scoring game because of these QBs and talented targets.
Projected Score: Steelers 30, Cardinals 27
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